Israeli elections between immigration and civil conflict

Writer: Dr. Jamal Zahalka

The Dropsite website published a story entitled “Israel may be heading towards civil war, or complete collapse,” in which it reported information about a secret assessment of the Red Cell at the American Intelligence Agency, the CIA. (“Al-Quds Al-Arabi” 10/6/2026). According to what the website said about this assessment, it is based on the fact that there is a “turbulent mix of pressures gathering on the eve of the Israeli elections.” Although various media outlets, including the Dropsite website itself, used the more provocative term “civil war,” the original assessment touched on the possibility of the emergence of a “civil conflict,” which is closer to reality. In all cases, it seems that the heated elections and the tension, polarization, and conflict that accompany them push Israeli society and the state into a crisis, which may intensify to a “civil conflict,” or may be less severe in the form of loud protests, a constitutional crisis, repeated elections, a rise in immigration, or all of them combined.

The website that published the news is considered an independent platform for investigative journalism with a progressive leftist orientation critical of American and Israeli politics, and it is considered an alternative media to the well-known institutional press. As for the “Red Cell,” the source of the news, it was established in the CIA. After the events of 11.9, I specialized in preparing alternative proposals, from a different point of view, to official evaluations. So, the report is an alternative assessment published by alternative media. I do not question here the validity of what was published by the site, which supports the Palestinian people. On the contrary, this site is known for its objectivity, integrity, and high professionalism. However, it is important to point out that what it published is not an official American assessment, but rather an intentional tweet outside the flock of the American establishment.

The site itself deals critically withThe “Red Cell” assessment, and the text of the news it published stated: “The assessment refers only to Jewish citizens of Israel and does not take into account Palestinian citizens, who constitute approximately 20% of Israel’s population, and live under various forms of discrimination, which Amnesty International and other human rights groups have described as part of a broader system of apartheid.”

This note came before the publication, this week, of the case of Professor Shahar Navo, the terrorist lecturer from Bar-Ilan University (established on the lands of the displaced town of Charity), against whom an official indictment was brought for involvement in planning to kill hundreds of Arab citizens in the towns of the interior to push them to emigrate. This lecturer had approached dozens of people to recruit them and planned to involve pilots and senior officers to assist them in bombing Arab towns when he began implementing his plan. His daughter refused to participate in the work, and told him that she was ready to join him if the right lost the elections. The accused was influenced by the racist, fascist atmosphere in Israel, and he translated the circulating words into actions. The expected protest against the election results (if the right loses) may take the form of bloody attacks on Palestinians inside.

crisis

The issue of election integrity has become a central issue in Israeli public opinion, and a public opinion poll conducted by the Israeli Democracy Institute indicated that more than 70% of respondents have confidence or fear that the upcoming elections will not be fair. The media outlets linked to Netanyahu are spreading rumors that the opposition intends to rig the elections in various ways, and is threatening to not acknowledge the right’s loss by saying that Netanyahu will definitely win, and if he does not win, the elections are fake. In the event that Netanyahu's camp loses, the allegations are ready to challenge the results and to carry out widespread protest actions that may lead to clashes and a "civil conflict," as mentioned in the "Droop Site" report. The American warnings did not come out of nowhere. Since the start of the election campaign, Israeli President Isaac Herzog has turned the phrase “elections are not a civil war” into something resembling a refrain in his speeches, repeating it on several occasions, warning against violence and turning political opponents into enemies. This does not mean that Herzog expects a civil war, but it reveals that the mere possibility of sliding into internal violence has become present at the highest levels of official Israeli discourse. There are many indications that Israel will be in a state of crisis if the anti-Netanyahu camp wins the elections. The Israeli right has a tremendous ability to mobilize people, through its organized groups and through incitement and sowing fear that the state will collapse if Netanyahu is removed from office. If Netanyahu and those with him decide not to recognize the election results, and this is possible, the conflict will move to the streets and the state institutions (police, army, intelligence) will be tested regarding...Its bias toward one party. The turning point after the elections may be the transition from talking about the election results to their legitimacy and the legitimacy of the new government. If this government relies on the votes of Arab representatives (by abstaining in most cases), it will lack legitimacy in the eyes of broad circles on the right. On this basis, in 1995, Yigal Amir assassinated Yitzhak Rabin, the former Israeli Prime Minister, claiming that he was illegitimate because he relied on Arab votes, which were also illegitimate in his view and in the view of the extreme right. In short, it can be said that the loss of the Netanyahu camp in the elections will lead to an unprecedented crisis and chaos in Israel.

Voting by legs

If Netanyahu's camp wins the elections, and this is possible, it is expected that there will be protest activities here and there by the rival camp, but it seems that they will be less intense and noisy than the opposite case, as the Israeli right is more organized and more impulsive and violent than its competitors. The strongest response from the public opposing Netanyahu will be a noticeable increase in the pace of immigration abroad, not only a continuation of the annual increase in the number of immigrants, but also a large, unprecedented jump.

In recent years, there has been a steady increase in the number of immigrants from Israel, and in the past two years it has reached about 90,000 annually, compared to an annual average of 40,000 during the years 2009-2021. Recent polls indicate that one in four Israelis is thinking about emigrating if his camp loses the elections, and a part of them is certain that he will leave the country. This means that large numbers will emigrate, especially if Netanyahu wins. The issue is not limited to numbers, as the majority of immigrants are university graduates, doctors, engineers, high-tech experts, and investors. These groups are the backbone of the Israeli economy, and they pay the most taxes. There is a claim that Netanyahu and the extreme right do not care about this immigration, because most of those leaving are not his voters. In any case, the economic and social loss will be exhausting for Israeli society, and may plunge it into a crisis from which it will be difficult to emerge.

The crisis scenario if the anti-Netanyahu camp wins, and the immigration scenario if it loses, are not the only ones. There is a high possibility that the tie between the two camps will continue until election day, and then various developments may occur, such as a unity government that brings calm, or new elections that remain...Israeli political society is in a continuous spiral. It is also possible that the battle will heat up on the eve of the elections, and on election day itself, and it is possible that Netanyahu will resort to a military adventure to postpone the elections. The Israeli arena today is open to many “options.” This is not an internal Israeli matter. Every scenario will be paid for by the Palestinian people, directly or indirectly, and the Israeli elections affect them, their lives, and their future no less than the Palestinian elections, whether they take place or are postponed.