Shikaki: Hamas’s popularity in the West Bank has declined and the crisis of confidence in the Palestinian leadership continues after October 7

Bethlehem - Ofoq News - In an interview with Ma’an TV, the director of the Palestinian Center for Political and Survey Research reviewed the transformations in Palestinian public opinion, stressing that the war changed the Palestinians’ positions on armed action and political solutions, while demands for change in the Palestinian leadership are increasing.

The shifts in Palestinian public opinion since October 7, 2023 have shown noticeable changes in Palestinian attitudes toward the political factions and the Palestinian leadership, in addition to a re-evaluation of the feasibility of armed action and options for a political settlement, according to what was presented by the Director of the Palestinian Center for Political and Survey Research, Dr. Khalil Al-Shaqaqi, in a television interview on Ufoq News TV.

Al-Shaqaqi explained that the first effect of the war was a significant increase in the popularity of the Hamas movement in the West Bank, as its support rate exceeded 40% during the years 2023 and 2024, after it had ranged between 15% and 30% before the war, according to the data he reviewed. But he pointed out that the movement's popularity later declined to approach 20% in the West Bank, with this trend continuing, especially in the wake of Hamas' acceptance of US President Donald Trump's plan and the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

He explained that the shifts in Hamas's popularity do not necessarily mean a return of confidence to the Fatah movement or the Palestinian Authority, as Fatah's popularity has remained declining since October 7, despite a slight improvement in some periods. He attributed this to the continuing crisis of confidence in the Palestinian leadership, in light of the difficult economic conditions, settler attacks in the West Bank, and the feeling of sectors of the Palestinians that the Authority has not played its role in confronting the challenges they are experiencing.

Armed action between support and retreat

In his explanation of the transformations that occurred in the positions of the Palestinians, Al-Shaqaqi said that the rise in Hamas’s popularity in the West Bank after October 7 was linked to a change in the convictions of sectors of the public regarding the feasibility of armed action and its ability to bring about a change in political reality. He pointed out that the escalation of settler attacks and the decline in confidence in the political path contributed to strengthening this trend.

But he explained that the subsequent decline in Hamas's popularity reflects, among other factors, the Palestinians' reassessment of the impact and cost of armed action, and the humanitarian and political repercussions of the war, in addition to positions related to the ceasefire and political concessions.

He pointed out that the positions of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip differ from their positions in the West Bank, given the harsh living and humanitarian conditions faced by the residents of the Strip, where the needs of survival and the provision of food, shelter and security take precedence over many political considerations.

A widespread crisis of confidence in the Palestinian Authority

Regarding the Palestinian leadership, Al-Shaqaqi indicated that the percentage of those demanding the resignation of President Mahmoud Abbas ranged over the past three years between 80% and 90%, and at one stage of the polls it reached 94% in the West Bank, before remaining above 80% according to the results he referred to in the dialogue.

He considered that these numbers reflect a high level of anger and loss of confidence in the leadership, in light of citizens feeling that they were left to face the economic, security and social crises without an adequate response. However, he stressed that demanding the president’s resignation does not necessarily mean that the public believes in the existence of easy solutions or the ability of the authority to address all existing crises.

Al-Shaqaqi stressed that the Palestinian public is looking for a new leadership capable of taking the initiative and restoring confidence, pointing out that the Center’s polls allow citizens to determine which personalities are popular, without the Center’s interference in choosing the names against which the public’s attitudes are measured.

Marwan Barghouti is at the forefront of the electoral scene

In the context of talking about the Palestinian elections and the possibilities of holding them, Al-Shaqaqi said that Marwan Barghouti is still the most popular leadership figure among the Palestinian leaders, according to what the Center’s polls have shown over many years.

He added that his presence becomes more important as election scenarios are put forward, considering that any electoral list headed by Barghouti will, according to his estimation based on the results of the polls, be a strong competitor for the top spot in the results.

But he pointed out that Barghouti's presence in prison places restrictions on his ability to meet the daily needs of citizens, warning against assuming that the popular expectations associated with him will be automatically fulfilled in light of the current political and geopolitical circumstances.

He also pointed out that the decline in confidence in the Fatah and Hamas movements and the Palestinian Authority raises questions about the possibility of the emergence of new political alternatives, but he considered that asserting the existence of a crystallized third movement is still premature.

Shifts in positions regarding the two-state solution

In terms of political solutions, Al-Shaqaqi described the shift in positions regarding the two-state solution after October 7 as one of the most prominent results that contradicted his previous expectations. He explained that he expected, based on the experiences of previous wars, a decline in support for the political solution and an escalation of more extreme positions, but the results showed an increase in support for the two-state solution compared to the periods preceding the war.

He pointed out that support for the one-state solution has also increased, especially among those who accept it on the basis of equal rights, explaining that a part of those who support this option also support the two-state solution.

On the other hand, he said that confidence in armed action is not as broad as it was in the wake of October 7, while confidence in negotiations is still limited, although it is slightly higher than it was in some previous periods. He linked this to the Palestinians’ awareness of the transformations taking place in the international position towards Israel, including the growing criticism directed at it in the United States.

Living priorities take precedence over political calculations

Al-Shaqaqi explained that citizens’ priorities differ between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. In Gaza, the needs for survival and provision of housing, food, water, and security are at the forefront, while in the West Bank, economic concerns, declining job opportunities, unemployment, and concerns about education and health services, in addition to the security risks associated with settler attacks, are prominent.

He pointed out that these issues will be among the basic considerations that govern voters’ choices if the elections are held, as citizens are looking for an entity capable of guaranteeing basic services, improving living conditions, and providing protection.

Survey methodology and margin of error

In response to questions about the accuracy of the poll results and the extent to which they represent Palestinian public opinion, Al-Shaqaqi explained that the center adopts representative samples based on population distribution data and maps issued by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, and that interviews are conducted face-to-face in the homes of participants.

He added that the sample size in the current polls ranges between 1,200 and 1,300 participants, with a margin of error of about 3 percentage points, plus or minus.

He pointed out that, over more than three decades of work, the results of the polls were subject to misunderstanding or political exploitation, pointing to what he described as the exploitation of some results by Israel, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in particular, after October 7th in the context of justifying the war on the Gaza Strip.

Al-Shaqaqi concluded his speech by emphasizing that the Palestinian citizen, like the leaders and factions, is looking for a way out of the crisis, but at the same time he realizes the limited options available and the difficulty of finding quick solutions. Even those calling for the president's resignation realize that the Palestinian Authority does not have the ability to provide full protection for the Palestinians in the face of the Israeli army and armed settlers.

The dialogue, according to what Shiqaqi proposed, reflects a Palestinian scene characterized by changing political positions, a decline in confidence in the existing leadership, and a re-evaluation of confrontation and settlement tools, in parallel with the escalation of living and security pressures that have become a fundamental factor in shaping Palestinian public opinion after October 7.