Israel's calculations amid the elections: strictness with Iran and no Palestinian state

Listen to the article. The audio text is automated, generated by an automated system

Four days before the Israeli elections, security and war calculations seem far from being affected by a change in leadership, in light of strategic constants that place confronting Iran at the top of priorities, and keep military force as a main tool for managing conflicts, while the establishment of a Palestinian state remains a distant possibility.

While Benjamin Netanyahu and his opponents compete to lead the next government, analysts believe that the differences between them are related to methods of managing confrontation and the limits of escalation rather than to the essence of politics, in a scene in which the post-October 7, 2023 wars are redefining Israel’s priorities and casting a shadow on the future of stability in the Middle East, according to a Reuters report.

The Israeli elections scheduled for next week may bring a new leader to the country, but they will not necessarily shift the strategic constants that govern its security policy, which were strengthened by the events of October 7, 2023, and then the wars that broke out in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, which consolidated convictions within Israel regarding the priority of “confronting opponents before their threats turn into direct dangers,” according to Israeli estimates.

Therefore, Israeli security policy is heading towards further tightening, as Netanyahu’s victory, with the support of his allies in the far-right coalition, may give greater space to escalate the confrontation with Iran, tighten Israeli control over the occupied West Bank, and marginalize the diplomatic track.

While the Israeli security doctrine is currently based on three main pillars: weakening Iran, controlling buffer zones outside the Israeli borders, and relying on military force to deter opponents, so the elections scheduled for next Tuesday do not seem like a likely turning point as much as they represent a test of the Middle East’s trend towards a long-term confrontation, during which wars escalate and decline in intensity, while the roots of the conflicts remain unresolved.

In addition, former advisor to Netanyahu Aviv Bushinsky said, “If Netanyahu is elected, he will do everything he thinks he wants to do... He will continue to expand the settlements. The wars against Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah will continue.” He added: "What you see now is what you will see after the elections, perhaps in a more aggressive manner."

He also considered that as long as Iran remains in its current state, talking about Palestine is a “waste of time,” as he put it.

In an indication of his security orientations, Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel must prioritize “prevention and attack over containment and defense,” which includes launching pre-emptive strikes to prevent emerging threats, working to consolidate Israel’s position as a regional power, and maximizing its independence in the field of armaments.

The elections pit the right-wing Likud Party, led by Netanyahu, and its extremist allies against an opposition led by the Yashar Party, led by former military commander Gadi Eisenkot. But electoral competition does not necessarily mean that there is a fundamental disagreement regarding the future of the Palestinian issue.

Palestinian analyst Ghassan Al-Khatib does not see the possibility of a radical shift in Israeli policy towards the Palestinians, in light of the parties’ competition to adopt more extreme positions, in conjunction with the expanding tendency towards the right within Israeli public opinion. He said that there are possibilities for changes “in style, form, and appearance, but without there being a change in my opinion in the essence of the policy,” explaining that “the essence of the policy is no to the Palestinian state, and yes to more settlements... This is a topic on which we all agree.”

While a government led by forces opposed to Netanyahu may seek to improve Israel's image and international standing, by reducing some of the violence committed by settlers, or continuing settlement expansion at a less tumultuous pace. But Al-Khatib believes that such steps, even if they occur, will reflect a change in style and not in the essence of the policy.

While observers believe that the confrontation between Israel and Iran has become a fundamental pillar of the Israeli security system, regardless of the identity of the winner of the elections, the researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center said that the Israeli security establishment and a wide sector of the political class share a strategic vision centered around confronting Iran, and maintaining the “advanced defense” strategy and military deterrence, which limits the possibilities of major political transformations.

US President Donald Trump's praise of Netanyahu, when he described him as a "great warrior prime minister," also reinforced expectations that the Israeli prime minister would try to resolve the confrontation with Tehran if he retained power.

But Netanyahu's declared ambitions are not limited to containing Iran, but rather extend to overthrowing its ruling regime. During an officer graduation ceremony, he said: “There is only one way to remove this threat once and for all, and that is to overthrow the regime in Iran,” adding that these are the directives he issues to the army, the Mossad, and other security services.

In another speech during the week, he said completing the mission would mean overthrowing the regime in Iran, which he described as the "head of a poisonous octopus."