Opinion.. Barea Al-Ahmar writes: When the French center collapses and the street threatens the state

This article is written by Baraa Al-Ahmar, a Lebanese journalist and political writer, and the opinions expressed below express her opinion and do not necessarily reflect the view of the Ofoq News network. The scene in Paris does not appear to be just social protests that have spiraled out of control, but rather a crisis of a state and a political system that is eroding under the pressure of popular anger and severe polarization.

What began with student movements that were peaceful in their early stages, quickly expanded into acts of violence that exposed the fragility of institutions and raised questions about whether the French state was able to contain street anger without pushing the country toward an open confrontation. Sympathy for the students who came out in defense of their right to education does not conflict with rejection of violence and vandalism.

Social anger is legitimate in a democratic system, but turning it into a tool to dismantle public order does not bring the French people the justice they demand, but rather exacerbates their sense of insecurity and pushes them to search for self-security, as some of those whose stores were looted say. The decline in public services and the erosion of purchasing power unleashed an accumulated economic and social crisis on the streets.

According to the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, half of workers in the private sector in 2024 will receive less than 2,190 net euros per month, a level of income that may not be sufficient to cover basic needs in light of the high costs of living. These numbers explain part of the tension, but they do not summarize all of its causes.

Politically, France appears to be facing a dilemma in the center that has ruled it over the past years. President Emmanuel Macron is facing a decline in the ability of his centrist project to accommodate social contradictions, while the space in which the extreme right-wing and radical left forces can move expands.

As the presidential elections scheduled for the spring of 2027 approach, the crisis is turning into a test for the future of the political system itself. From the ashes of this middle rise the two extremes.

Marine Le Pen promises order, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon raises the slogan of social justice. Fear of chaos becomes electoral fuel, anger turns into a hammer to undermine institutions, and the French find themselves faced with two options that do not necessarily address the roots of the crisis.

Also, the negotiation initiated by the Ministry of Interior with the leadership of the radical left will not be sufficient alone to contain the street, if the social and political reasons for the protest remain. What is more dangerous is that any decision to use the army, if actually proposed to control the protests expected next Saturday, may open the door to an escalation that will be difficult to contain.

Force may impose temporary calm, but it will not address high prices or the feeling of marginalization, and what France needs is to restore the rule of law and protect citizens, in parallel with implementable political and social solutions. At the same time, the French crisis cannot be separated from broader European transformations.

Open wars in the world, energy security, and pressures on public budgets have made governments’ choices more difficult, while anti-European forces take advantage of every failure to expand their influence. In this climate, European divisions may serve Moscow's interests, without this meaning direct Russian intervention in every crisis.

The discrepancies between Washington and its European allies also increase the need for more coherent European strategic independence. France is not necessarily on the brink of civil war, but ignoring signs of social and political disintegration could make containing the crisis difficult.

The real test is not the state's ability to disperse demonstrators, but rather to protect citizens. The question facing France today is not limited to who will rule it in the coming years, but rather extends to the remaining confidence of the French in a country that so far appears unable to contain division and violence and prevent their escalation.