How might Trump's latest offer on Ukraine tempt Putin to escalate his war?

Analysis by Nick Patton Walsh from Ufoq News Network - The term “Shell Bay Formula” may be strange for history. This term appeared on Thursday, derived from the name of a golf course and a luxury residential complex extending over 150 acres owned by US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, to be called the next phase of the Trump administration’s efforts to end the Russian war on Ukraine, which is considered the largest conflict in Europe since the 1940s. Jared Kushner, another peace envoy and real estate tycoon, used this term in a lengthy post on the X platform on Thursday, in which he referred to the need to reach a comprehensive peace agreement in Europe.

“For more than 30 years, Europe and Russia have struggled to establish a sustainable security framework,” Kushner wrote. President Trump reinforced this idea after meeting with Moscow's envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, at the White House, where he said on Thursday: "I cannot tell you what we discussed, but I assure you that it will be a big agreement. It will not only be limited to Ukraine, but may include all of Europe."

On Friday, 3 European officials contacted by Ofoq News reported that they did not realize what Kushner or Trump were referring to. In his conversation with broadcaster Jack Tapper on Ofek News, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he knew only a few details about this proposal, warning that the matter would not be simple.

Kushner's circular included five main goals: "permanent security consultations, reliable channels of communication in times of crises, enhancing military transparency, taking reciprocal measures to reduce the risks of escalation, and establishing a sustainable framework for long-term security and stability in Europe." The statement stated that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will remain an essential element, even if it appears from the above that the role of the alliance - of which the United States is an indispensable founding member - may become less prominent.

Kushner's ambitious "mixture of words" did not mention Russia's invasion of two of its neighbors, nor the two wars it fought in Chechnya during the era that followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Moreover, it seemed that any proposed agreement would complement NATO, rather than undermine its basic raison d'être.

Over the past 72 hours, senior NATO and European officials have been holding meetings in Brussels to discuss economic and security concerns related to Ukraine, ahead of US-led negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi next week. There, the United States will seek to revive discussions on settling the conflict.

Moscow sent Vladimir Medinsky to head its delegation; He is a diplomat who is fond of giving historical lectures, which has led many to believe that the Kremlin is seeking to go back in time, specifically to 2025, when the last round of these negotiations was held. In fact, months of discussions in Miami, Abu Dhabi, Alaska, Istanbul, and Geneva have proven only one fact: that Moscow will not end the war until it achieves its goals.

But the “Shell Bay Formula” — a name that refers to a bay, not the name of a company or a game — is emerging at a time when Trump, who appears frustrated and damaged after the midterm elections, faces increasing obstacles to his domestic agenda; Which may push him to seek to consolidate his legacy in the field of foreign policy, where he enjoys greater freedom of movement. As for Iran, it seems unlikely that it will be the target of assertive or confrontational action by Trump, especially since he and many senior Republican Party leaders blame the war for the severe electoral defeat they suffered this week.

Reaching some formula for peace in Ukraine may represent a more attractive option; Perhaps Trump sees - through his continued rapprochement and sympathy with Russian President Vladimir Putin - an opportunity to reshape the world, create wealth for a select few Americans, and relieve the United States of the burden of supporting the burdensome European security system. It is noteworthy that Trump only met with Russian envoy Dmitriev, although both Kiev and Moscow sent delegations to the White House to meet with the First Lady on Thursday.

This investor, who is fluent in English and has a personable manner, was presenting a range of potential business deals as part of efforts to improve Russian-American relations. This prompted investigators from the Democratic Party to wonder whether Trump's inner circle might benefit from these deals. The sudden return of the Ukraine file to Trump's agenda raised concern in European capitals.

A European official said: “It is inevitable that we will see Trump focusing on Ukraine now that the results of the midterm elections are in.” Most European officials clearly understand that no agreement can be imposed on Ukraine - or Europe - without their consent.

The official added: “Ukraine’s need for its European partners during and after the war far outweighs the possibility of being forced to accept a Russian settlement, even if Trump tries to push for it.” The danger lies in the impact this will have on morale and in the nature of the directions that Trump may take during the last eighteen months of his term.

The coming winter in Ukraine - during which Kiev is already suffering from outages in water, telephone and electricity networks - may witness additional unjustified restrictions on American intelligence and technical assistance, as we have already witnessed in previous months. Europe may also face an escalation in acts of sabotage and provocations by Moscow. The danger is not that NATO countries and Ukraine will suddenly back down or accept restrictions on their defense capabilities. If we look at history, 18 months is a very short period - according to Russian diplomatic timetables - to conclude any kind of agreement.

But the potential rapprochement between the United States and Russia that this period may bring entails a greater risk. Putin may interpret the United States’ refusal to provide aid to Europe or Ukraine as an additional pretext for escalation, and to relentlessly seek results on the ground in the war he chose to wage - results that he has failed to achieve despite 5 years of the invasion and two years of Trump’s presidency. Kushner and Trump’s talk about a “deal” may not mean anything at all, but it provides greater opportunities for the Kremlin, which is facing increasing pressure. This may tempt the Russian leadership to take more reckless risks.