Iraqi Kurds have no choice but to work with and rely on its official government

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While Iraq celebrates the withdrawal of "coalition" forces from its land, the Iraqi Kurds do not appear to be in a similar celebratory mood. A Kurdish researcher at the London Dialog think tank believes that the Kurds feel that the withdrawal requires a funeral, not a celebration. “It is not good, but it is an Iraqi decision.

They asked them to come to their country and now they are telling them, ‘We no longer need you,’” says a Kurdish military commander who became a businessman, Sirwan Barzani. He adds that he sees an increase in the movement of the “Islamic State’s” mujahideen, and that his force, as well as the Iraqi government forces, noticed four or five Islamic cells moving near the Makhmour district in the Nineveh Governorate, after months of the group’s inactivity. This is a worrying and alarming matter, Barzani says. “We know what happened in 2014. Now there will certainly be activity.” “For terrorist cells, and we can see that.” However, the Iraqi and Kurdish forces are more trained and organized now than they were in 2014. In that year, the “Islamic State” captured a third of Iraqi territory and large parts of Syrian territory. In any case, they were pushed out of Iraq in 2017 and out of Syria in 2019. This was due to counterattacks carried out by local forces with the support of the “coalition.”

In 2024, Iranian and Iraqi officials agreed that coalition forces would withdraw from Iraq on September 30, 2026. The biggest threat to the Iraqi Kurds today is not the “Islamic State” but the continuing attacks by Iranian drones. This is happening within the framework of the conflict between Washington and the Kurds, who could help the Iranian Kurds to carry out operations against the Islamic regime in Iran.

On the day of the withdrawal of coalition forces, an Iranian drone struck a civilian camp housing Iranian Kurds near Iraqi Kurdistan. Since last February 28, the day the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, the Kurdish region in Iraq has faced attacks by about a thousand drones and missiles from Iran and from Iraqi armed groups loyal to it. This caused the death of about 32 people, 19 of whom were members of Iranian Kurdish parties. In March, rumors circulated that Iranian Kurds would carry out a ground invasion of Iran with American and Israeli support. In any case, that did not happen. On September 27, the office of the media official in the Kurdish local and regional government confirmed that Iranian Kurdish groups were aware of the security agreement concluded in 2023 between Erbil, Baghdad, and Tehran. The agreement aimed to prevent Iranian Kurdish armed groups from attacking neighboring countries.

While Iraq set last September 20 as a deadline to disarm Iraqi militias in response to American pressure, it changed its position and set a new deadline for that, which is June 30, 2027. “The first and greatest internal Iraqi threat comes from the pro-Iranian militias that have attacked Iraqi Kurdistan and neighboring countries more than a hundred times this year.” This is what a retired American general, Miles Caggins, who was an official spokesman for the coalition forces, said. He added: "The Iraqi central government faces a noticeable challenge in its conflict with these illegal militias that launch marches without facing serious repercussions."

Therefore, Barzani noted, he must provide the Kurds with air defenses. In the end, it is an Iraqi atmosphere. Even if Iraq does not have sufficient air defenses, it will be weak in the face of challenges. So you hope that when they provide these defenses, they can provide them to Kurdistan as well. As for Ambassador Joey Hood, a former assistant at the State Department for Near Eastern Affairs who also served in Iraq, he says that it is unlikely that Iranian attacks across the Middle East will stop. This also includes Iraqi Kurdistan. Iran did not only target the American army, but it also targeted American interests, and thus they justified their attack on an electrical station in the Kurdistan region or the water analysis institution in Kuwait. He added: “The federal government in Baghdad and the regional government in Erbil need to work together and with partners like the United States to acquire and deploy air defense systems, as they need to defend against these attacks.

Before the US-Iran war, the latter, along with groups supported by it, targeted positions of opposition Iranian forces, Kurdish oil and gas fields, and even Kurdish businessmen. For example, the Kurdish billionaire Bashraw Dezayi and his 11-year-old daughter were killed on January 16, 2024, by a ballistic missile strike. The pretext was that Iran targeted an Israeli spy headquarters. US CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper said on September 30 that the Iraqi security forces, including the Kurdish Peshmerga, now possess the ability, leadership, and operational independence to confront threats to their land. But unfortunately, another Syndcom officer notes that the Baghdad government will not be very interested, and is concerned about attempts to penetrate the Kurdish areas. Therefore, the Kurds must depend on themselves and on their relationship with Baghdad, according to an official in the coalition who worked as an advisor to the Kurdish Peshmerga.

Unfortunately, the alliance is leaving now. It is always good to have something left to counter ISIS efforts and for continued military assistance. Only time will tell if these observations are correct. In any case, Nechirvan Barzani, head of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, said at a farewell ceremony for US forces that the Kurds cannot avoid one thing, which is increasing their dependence on Baghdad. This means that during the founding stage Iraq itself plays an active and important national role.