Indicators of a regional war and a dangerous month for Lebanon... and a warning against Hezbollah’s involvement in the confrontation?

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All indications indicate that war is taking place on the Iranian front, and its outbreak remains a matter of time in light of the deadlock in negotiations, which is accompanied by escalation and threats by US President Donald Trump and attempts to lure countries into engaging in it, despite the warnings issued by officials in the region of the danger of war that will not lead to resolving matters, but rather spread chaos in the region.

No one expects the extent of the war if it breaks out, its size, and whether its goal is to overthrow the Iranian regime, or to drag Tehran to the negotiating table under new conditions, as Lebanon awaits its effects, especially if Hezbollah decides to support Iran among the Axis powers, after receiving international messages that include warnings against engaging in the confrontation, while calling for the party’s weapons file to be addressed quickly and decisive measures taken in the explosives file, before it becomes a pretext for a possible Israeli war.

Information indicates that Lebanon will face a difficult stage during the next month, as attention will be directed to southern Lebanon, and what Hezbollah will decide in the event of a regional war breaking out, and also whether Israel will wage its war in the south, especially after the Tampa military negotiations failed to achieve results to stop the Israeli escalation, despite Washington’s insistence on continuing to hold military technical meetings, even with the escalation, as it does not want any halt to the negotiations, adhering to the framework agreement as a regulator of relations up to the end. Security arrangements and an agreement leading to an end to the conflict, in parallel with the disarmament of Hezbollah.

What is established is that Lebanon is informed by Washington that the progress of the negotiations is conditional on disarming Hezbollah and reaching understandings with Israel. It had issued a warning to the state, warning against failure to take measures against the party, as for the Americans, and even European and Arab countries, it is no longer possible to deal with the party’s weapons file in an equivocal manner. Rather, it must be completely dismantled, in parallel with exerting pressure to prevent it from carrying out any operations against Israel. The warnings, according to diplomatic sources, indicate that Israel is waiting for any military movement from the party, or even the transfer of explosives that it monitors via drones, to wage a wide and destructive war against Lebanon, not excluding the southern suburbs and even Beirut, and occupying southern areas all the way to the first.

The danger now, due to Israel's threats, and its opportunity for the party to slip into carrying out any operation to direct major strikes against it, is that Hezbollah has decided to confront the state in everything related to the issue of the south, by clinging to its weapons and declaring that it will raise its combat capabilities for the confrontation, and that no one will dictate to it any decisions that prevent it from resisting, despite the impasse that matters have reached between the party and the state regarding the issue of explosives, with the pressures that Lebanon is exposed to in order to implement its obligations on the issue of weapons, and in the absence of any initiatives for dialogue and the formulation of a national position to confront it. Hazards in the area. According to the information, the party refuses, with a decisive Iranian decision, to hand over weapons, as it believes that the Lebanon front will remain ready to support Iran, which means exposing Lebanon completely to the regional conflict.

Based on international warnings, the information indicates that it is a dangerous month for Lebanon, as progress in the Lebanese file is limited soon in light of regional developments and the possibility of war. Even with a settlement reached on the Iranian path instead of war, the situation in Lebanon may remain as it is for a long period, with the Israeli occupation remaining and the negotiations and internal impasse remaining, and the matter is linked to the results of the Israeli and American elections, as to whether Washington will maintain its follow-up of the Lebanese file without achieving achievements by withdrawing weapons, or will it leave its fate to Israel and its open ambition for expansion and occupation?