Features of the Middle East after the American elections

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Speculation is increasing regarding the features of American policy in the wake of the midterm elections scheduled for next November. Prevailing expectations assume that the Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives, while it is difficult to predict who will control the Senate, as the Republicans may retain a slim majority, although some seats that were previously considered guaranteed now appear to be at risk. The results will have major repercussions for the Middle East, especially regarding President Donald Trump's policy toward Iran.

If Democrats control the House of Representatives, they will control fiscal expenditures. In theory, this could give them significant influence over the defense budget and make it difficult for Trump to continue military operations against Iran. There is a historical precedent for this. In 1973, Congress used appropriations legislation to prohibit funding for American combat operations in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos. It also passed the “War Powers Resolution,” overriding the veto power used by President Richard Nixon. This incident demonstrated that Congress is capable of imposing significant restrictions on presidential military policy when it possesses sufficient will.

However, there is an important complication, as the new Congress will not assume its duties until January 2027. During the period between the November elections and the start of the work of the new Congress, Trump will remain free to continue his current policy. Some observers believe that the weeks following the elections may witness an extremely dangerous phase, as the United States may exploit its military superiority to intensify attacks on Iran, or even deploy special forces in locations close to the Strait of Hormuz, in the most severe scenario.

Iranian leaders will have strong incentives to respond, whether by targeting American forces and bases or attacking commercial ships. Such a confrontation would quickly expand beyond the scope of the original conflict, especially since the risk would be exacerbated by the prevailing political uncertainty in both Washington and Tel Aviv.

The issue of nuclear proliferation remains the most pressing issue in the long term, and if diplomacy does not result in an agreement preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, other regional powers may end up taking the same path. The presence of a Middle East that includes several nuclear powers would create a dangerous level of uncertainty. Israel faces a decisive political moment, as it is scheduled to hold its general elections on October 27, that is, only a few days before the American midterm elections. Hard-line nationalists fear that a government that does not include Benjamin Netanyahu and the extreme right will lead to a reversal of some settlement expansion in the West Bank, and reopen the door to the possibility of establishing a Palestinian state in the future. The formation of an Israeli government leaning more towards the center, coinciding with the victory of the Democrats in the US Congress, may fundamentally change the political landscape surrounding the settlement issue.

Democrats have been among the strongest supporters of Israel for decades, especially in the wake of the attacks of October 7, 2023. However, this support is no longer as automatic or devoid of political complications as it was in the past, as younger American voters have become increasingly critical of the Netanyahu government and its way of managing the war in Gaza. As a result, Israel's relations with its traditional democratic allies have become increasingly tense.

Hence, the coming months deserve special attention, as November and December are usually associated with holidays and feasts, but this year they may turn into a period of increased anxiety. The conjunction of a political transition in the United States, Israeli elections, the unresolved war in Gaza, and the possibility of renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran could lead to a dangerous mix of military, economic, and political uncertainty. What happens over the next few weeks may determine not only the future of the Middle East, but also the stability of the broader international system.