From the Jericho bus to the 1996 bombings... security events changed the course of the Israeli elections

Jerusalem - Prepared by Ofoq News - Prominent moments in the history of the Israeli elections were linked to security events, attacks and military operations that occurred days before voting or during the electoral campaigns, and affected the priorities of voters, especially on issues related to security and the conflict with the Palestinians.

Archival reports published by Israeli media outlets, including Yedioth Ahronoth and Walla newspaper, indicate that some of these events contributed to changing voting trends or were used in election campaigns to enhance the chances of political parties and figures.

1988: Jericho bus attack two days before the elections

On October 30, 1988, less than 48 hours before the elections for the Twelfth Knesset, “Palestinian attackers” threw Molotov cocktails at an Israeli Egged bus, which was traveling on Route 961 from Tiberias to Jerusalem, near Jericho.

The attack led to the burning of the bus and the death of Rachel Weiss, 26, and her three children, while soldier David DelRosa later died of his injuries after trying to rescue them.

The operation took place amid the escalation of the first Palestinian Intifada, which broke out in December 1987, and its repercussions were one of the main issues in the elections.

Walla newspaper reported that the elections ended with the victory of the Likud, led by Yitzhak Shamir, over the Labor Party, which was leading the Al-Ma'arakh coalition, by one seat, as the Likud won 40 seats compared to 39 for the Al-Ma'arach coalition.

The newspaper indicated that the attack was considered one of the events that may have contributed to moving voters' votes in the last moments.

1992: Helena Raab was killed and security became an electoral issue

On May 24, 1992, 15-year-old Israeli girl Helena Raab was stabbed to death in the city of Bat Yam, in an attack carried out by a Palestinian from the Gaza Strip.

Her murder sparked widespread shock in Israel, and the city witnessed angry protests, while the issue emerged during the election campaign waged by Labor Party Chairman Yitzhak Rabin against Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir.

Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that Raab's killing had become one of the events that was strongly present in the electoral debate on security, and that it was linked to the decline in Shamir's popularity and the rise of Rabin, who won the June 1992 elections.

The Labor Party, led by Rabin, won 44 seats, compared to 32 seats for Likud, led by Shamir.

However, the outcome of the elections was also influenced by other factors, including economic and social issues and controversy over the course of political negotiations.

1996: Bombing attacks changed the atmosphere of competition between Peres and Netanyahu

The 1996 elections are one of the most prominent examples of the connection between security developments and the competition for the presidency of the Israeli government.

At the beginning of the year, Israel assassinated Yahya Ayyash, one of the most prominent leaders of the Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the Hamas movement, and this was followed by an escalation in attacks inside Israel.

On February 25, 1996, two bombings occurred in Jerusalem and Ashkelon, killing dozens of Israelis.

On March 3, a bombing attack occurred in Jerusalem, followed by another bombing attack in Tel Aviv the next day.

The attacks came at a time when Prime Minister Shimon Peres, the Labor Party candidate, was ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Likud candidate, in the opinion polls.

According to a report published by the Jewish News Agency "JTA" on February 27, 1996, opinion polls following the bombings showed an immediate rise in support for Likud led by Netanyahu, after it was clearly behind Peres.

The Yedioth report also indicated that the attacks strengthened the feeling of sectors of the Israeli public that the political track with the Palestinians did not achieve the desired security, which is what the right-wing camp opposing the Oslo Accords benefited from.

On May 29, 1996, Netanyahu won the presidency by a narrow margin of about 29,000 votes over Peres, in one of the most close elections in the history of Israel.

The result cannot be reduced to explosions alone; Other factors interfered with it, including the Israeli "Grapes of Wrath" operation in Lebanon, the killing of civilians in the bombing of a United Nations site in Qana, in addition to the intense electoral campaigns in recent days.

2000-2001: The Second Intifada and the victory of Ariel Sharon

The second Palestinian intifada broke out in September 2000, following the visit of Ariel Sharon, who was then head of the Likud Party, to the courtyards of Al-Aqsa Mosque, and the widespread confrontations and protests that followed.

Confrontations and operations escalated over the following months, and the issue of security became at the forefront of Israeli political debate.

In the Prime Minister's elections that took place in February 2001, Sharon defeated Prime Minister Ehud Barak, obtaining 62.3% of the votes, compared to 37.7% for Barak.

Israeli reports indicated that the escalation of violence and the decline in confidence in the chances of reaching a political settlement contributed to weakening Barak and strengthening the position of Sharon, who campaigned under the slogan "peace and security."

But these elections also came in light of a widespread political crisis and the decline of Barak's popularity, and operations alone cannot be considered a complete explanation of the result.

2008-2009: Gaza War and changing electoral campaign priorities

On December 27, 2008, Israel launched Operation Cast Lead on the Gaza Strip, weeks before the February 2009 Knesset elections.

The operation led the main Israeli parties to temporarily suspend their election campaigns, with public attention shifting to the military confrontation and the security file.

Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that the process changed the nature of the election campaign, which had begun amid a focus on economic issues and accusations of corruption, and prompted the parties to rearrange their priorities.

In the elections, the Kadima party led by Tzipi Livni won 28 seats, compared to 27 seats for the Likud led by Netanyahu, but the right-wing camp won a larger majority in the Knesset, which enabled Netanyahu to form the government.

This result shows that the electoral impact of military events does not necessarily appear in the number of seats of the winning party alone, but may also appear in the ability of the political camps to form the government.

Security is an influential electoral factor and not the only explanation

These stations show that attacks linked to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, along with military operations and field escalation, have often pushed security to the forefront of Israeli election campaigns, and have provided parties that present a hard-line security discourse with the opportunity to strengthen their political presence.

The 1988 elections, with the Jericho bus attack, and the 1996 elections, which were preceded by a wave of bombing attacks, remain among the most prominent cases covered by the Israeli press when examining the relationship between security events and changing voter attitudes.