The secret travel season is no longer a secret.. Has the era of cheap travel in the fall ended?

American Heather Wright has always been a fan of traveling outside the peak season, when the weather becomes milder, crowds are smaller, and prices drop significantly. But this pattern that travelers have become accustomed to with the arrival of autumn seems to be starting to change.

Wright, who works as a tax accountant and lives in Seattle, plans to travel with her friends to Europe in November, perhaps to Malta or Madeira. She was hoping to find a well-priced flight from the United States to a major European airport, then use shorter flights to reach her final destination.

However, she did not find the discounts she expected. Wright was surprised by the unusual rise in fall prices this year, especially airline tickets.

The data indicates that her observation is correct, as high jet fuel prices, as a result of the war with Iran, led to a significant rise in ticket prices this year and high demand for travel in the fall, which led to an increase in prices. Therefore, it is still possible to find good deals, but travelers need more flexibility and planning.

It seems that what was known as the “secret season” for travel is no longer a secret, especially among travelers looking for luxury trips. “Fall is the new summer,” says Misty Belz, vice president of global public relations for luxury travel network Virtuoso.

Virtuoso data indicates that fall 2026 bookings increased by 59% compared to last year, while resulting revenues increased by 69%. European bookings in the fall also increased by 49%, despite prices rising by more than 7%.

This suggests that many travelers are choosing fall because of the better weather and smaller crowds it offers, not just the financial savings. In the United States, the fall season's low-price advantage has also diminished.

According to data from Hopper Technology Solutions, average prices for domestic flights in the fall increased by 39% compared to last year, bringing prices close to peak summer levels. Four years ago, US domestic airfares in the fall were about 20% lower than peak summer prices, but this year they are 1% higher.

This is due to rising fuel prices, increased demands resulting from flexible remote working, and reduced competition from low-cost airlines. Expedia also found that travel costs to its top ten US destinations, including New York, Miami and New Orleans, are higher in the fall than in the summer.

Accommodation costs increased by an average of 20%, while flight prices increased by 2%. However, some coastal and mountain destinations still offer good savings opportunities.

Also in the United Kingdom, hotel prices in some destinations during the fall became equal to or higher than summer prices, and in some places the increase reached between 20% and 30%. However, lower prices can be found in some areas of Portugal and the Greek islands.

Fall savings opportunities "haven't gone away, but they're no longer automatic," says Melanie Fish of Expedia Group. With the spread of dynamic pricing in hotels, hoteliers no longer automatically lower prices once summer is over.

Therefore, experts advise flexibility when choosing the destination, airport and travel dates. Using different airports within the same region may help reduce costs.

Avoiding common flights from Thursday to Sunday can also be a way to save, as Sunday is usually one of the cheapest days of the week to stay. For international travel, airfare prices in the fall will still be lower than in the summer in many areas, but the amount of decline is smaller.

In 2023, flight prices to Europe fell by 33% from summer to fall, while this year the decline is expected to reach only 22%. At the same time, flight prices from the United States to Europe this fall increased by 33% compared to last fall.

The most important reasons why travelers shift towards autumn are the very high temperatures in summer, in addition to crowding. Travel consultant Jo-Anne Redwood says September has practically replaced August, while October is starting to replace September as the preferred time to travel.

When Redwood searched for river cruises in late October and early November, she found prices 15% to 20% higher, or about $1,000, than at the beginning of September. Rooms in small luxury hotels are also becoming more scarce.

However, increased interest in fall does not necessarily mean that total travel has increased in all sectors. Some data indicate a decline in American bookings to Europe by about 6% compared to the previous year, while growth appears stronger in the luxury travel market.

As for Wright, she is still looking for a suitable deal for her trip next November. It is considering combining separate one-way tickets, different travel classes, and paying with a mix of cash and credit card miles.

But she noticed that there were many empty seats despite the continued high prices. She wonders whether there is some kind of standoff between airlines and travelers, with each side waiting to see who will back down first.

For now, she continues to monitor ticket prices, hoping to find good value, stressing that she does not want to spend a huge amount on a trip in November, because, to her, it does not make sense.