Iran's floating oil is running out.. The pressures of the blockade are tightening on Tehran

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Iran's shadow fleet has long provided a source of income that has served as a lifeline to an economy exhausted by sanctions and war. Tehran continued to sell millions of barrels stored on tankers in Asian waters, obtaining billions of dollars despite the American blockade. But this floating stock has now dried up, according to analysts, after the blockade prevented compensation for the quantities that were sold to Chinese refineries.

Throughout most of the war, Iran kept dozens of tankers loaded with oil outside its territory, so it was able to withdraw from its reserves and continue collecting revenues, while export routes from its ports were disrupted.

However, this resource began to decline until it was exhausted by mid-October, according to Kepler. Humayun Falakshahi, the company’s head of crude oil analysis, summed up the situation by saying: “There is no more oil to unload in China,” according to the Wall Street Journal.

While the Kepler data clearly demonstrated the size of the stockpile on which Tehran relied; When the war began in February, it had about 135 million barrels offshore, most of them off Malaysia and Singapore, with an estimated value of $10 billion or more.

These waters were an essential station in the Iranian oil export system. Tankers transport the crude to it, then unload it into other ships that complete the journey to China. Transfers between ships complicated the tracking of shipments and punished those dealing with them, and also made it possible to store large quantities until they were sold.

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But with the imposition of the US blockade in April, Iran relied on these reserves to meet Chinese demand. When it was lifted in mid-June as part of the peace negotiations, they rushed to increase shipments and rebuild stocks, before reimposing it in mid-July.

According to Kpler, the reserves, which then amounted to approximately 90 million barrels, fell to less than one million barrels on October 5, and were later depleted.

Although the monitoring authorities agree on the decline in stock, their estimates of the remaining quantities differ. Vortexa detected about six million barrels near Singapore on October 9, while the United Against Nuclear Iran organization suggested that there were ten million barrels or less at the beginning of the month, although it is difficult to determine the exact total.

Vortexa analyst Emma Lee said that Chinese refineries are increasingly turning to alternative suppliers, including Brazil and West African countries.

However, some revenue may still arrive in Tehran in the coming weeks, because Chinese payments for previous purchases take about two months to clear, according to analysts.

The decline in sales comes at a time when Iran needs foreign currency to cope with inflation and shortages of goods. Oil provides between 30% and 40% of government revenues, according to Falakshahi, while the Iranian currency has lost a third of its value against the dollar since early July.

The US Central Command said on Saturday that the blockade deprived Tehran of oil revenues of no less than $25 billion, limiting its ability to rebuild factories and replace destroyed weapons.

Iran has resorted to storing crude locally and transporting it overland to neighboring countries, but analysts believe that these alternatives do not compensate for sea freight volumes.

Despite the pressure, the Iranian government maintains its ability to withstand. Central Bank Governor Abdel Nasser Hemmati said, during a meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Bangkok, that the economy has shown “very good resilience,” and that talk of its collapse is “nothing more than an illusion.”