10 years after the Brexit referendum, Britain is reconsidering

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A decade after the vote that took Britain out of the European Union, the relationship with Brussels returns to the forefront of the British political scene, after Prime Minister Andy Burnham opened the door to examining all options, up to the possibility of a full return to the European Union.

At a time when Paris welcomed the British-European rapprochement, the issue appears to be more than just an amendment to the post-Brexit agreements, as Britain reopens a question that has been present since the separation: Was the exit the end of the relationship with Europe or just a stage that can be reconsidered?

While the British Prime Minister did not put forward an immediate decision to return his country to the European Union, he said that his country must discuss the future of its relationship with European partners and study the available options, starting from maintaining the current situation, through returning to the customs union or the single market, all the way to “going to the end” and rejoining the European Union, according to what was reported by “Reuters.”

Burnham previously explained that Brexit caused more harm than benefits, considering that Britain's exit did not fulfill the promises that accompanied the secession campaign, and that the country has become weaker economically and in dealing with the immigration issue.

While the British Prime Minister is expected to present a vision of the various options in conjunction with the upcoming summit between Britain and the European Union next November, while it is likely that no official steps to return will begin before the next general elections scheduled for mid-2029.

The story began on June 23, 2016, when the British voted in a historic referendum in favor of leaving the European Union by 51.9% compared to 48.1% in favor of remaining, with a participation of 72.2% of voters, according to Reuters.

The goal of this step was to regain control over laws, borders, and immigration, in addition to objecting to Britain’s relationship with the European Union institutions, which are the most prominent axes that fueled the exit campaign, which raised the slogan “taking back control.” Following the referendum, London officially launched the withdrawal process on 29 March 2017 by triggering Article 50 of the EU Treaty.

After years of negotiations, postponements, and political conflict within the British Parliament, the United Kingdom officially left the European Union on January 31, 2020, and entered a transitional phase that lasted until the end of the same year.

Then, on December 31, 2020, the transitional phase ended, and Britain left the single market and the European Customs Union, effectively beginning a new phase of trade and political relations with the bloc.

However, the issue of Brexit did not disappear after exit, but rather remained present in the British political and economic debate, especially with the continuing controversy over the repercussions of separation and the trade relationship with Britain’s largest economic partner.

With the passage of ten years, opinion polls showed a clear shift in the public mood. According to the latest YouGov data, 57% of Britons believed that the decision to leave the European Union was wrong, compared to 30% who found it correct.

While another poll showed that 55% supported Britain's return to the European Union in principle, but support decreased significantly when conditions for a possible return were presented, such as losing the privileges that Britain had previously enjoyed.

In the same context, a study by the European Council on Foreign Relations indicated that about three-quarters of Britons expressed their desire for a closer relationship with the European Union.

While a poll covering European countries showed that 66% of citizens of the countries surveyed supported Britain's return to the Union.

But these numbers do not necessarily mean unconditional support for the return, as the details of the future relationship, and whether London will accept European rules and obligations, remain a decisive factor in the level of support.

The idea of ​​returning to the European Union did not appear with Burnham, but rather gradually expanded within the British arena in recent years. One of the most prominent voices supporting it is former Prime Minister Tony Blair, who called this September for Britain to work towards rejoining the Union within the next ten years.

Prominent Labor Party officials have also previously described Brexit as a mistake, while others have put forward the idea of ​​gradually approaching the European market and the customs union instead of moving directly to full membership.

Thus, Burnham's statements represent an evolution in the level of political debate, as they not only call for a closer relationship, but also place full return among the options that should be considered.

As for the French welcome, it was not surprising and does not represent the first European indication of the possibility of Britain’s return, as French President Emmanuel Macron had previously confirmed that the door was open to Britain. During his recent visit to the United Kingdom, he also indicated openness to advance the process of resetting relations between London and the European Union.

But other European countries preceded Paris in declaring their openness to the idea of ​​return. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez confirmed that Madrid would "certainly" support Britain's membership if London decided to start the accession process again, while Finnish President Alexander Stubb described Britain as a potential candidate for membership, and said that Europe "misses" its British voice. Last May, the European Green Party officially called on Britain to re-join the Union, according to The Guardian newspaper.

In France itself, the matter was not limited to Macron; Last June, former French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal called for Britain's return, considering that Brexit was disastrous, while stressing Britain's importance to Europe's security and its role in defense and strategic issues.

But the path from presenting the idea to implementing it is long and complicated. Returning to the European Union will not simply mean canceling the results of the 2016 referendum, but will require a new accession process and negotiation with member states and Union institutions about the terms of membership.

But the more complex question remains the terms under which Britain will return. Before Brexit, London enjoyed special exceptions, including not joining the Eurozone and the Schengen Area. Opinion polls show that this particular point may become an obstacle; British support for return declines when voters are asked to imagine Britain returning without its previous privileges. Also in France and Germany, YouGov polls indicate that a majority of those who support Britain's return believe it should adhere to key European policies.

There are also other models less than full membership that could present themselves, such as a return to the single market or customs union, or a formula similar to the relationship that links the European Union with countries such as Norway or Switzerland, which are options that give Britain different degrees of access to the European market in exchange for common commitments and rules.

Inside Britain, Birnam's statements did not pass without objection. The Reform UK party accused the Prime Minister of trying to return Britain to Brussels "through the back door," while opponents warned of reopening the division caused by the 2016 referendum, according to Reuters.

Also, within the camp of supporters of European rapprochement itself, there are more cautious voices, who believe that the priority should be to improve the relationship with the European Union practically, rather than turning the issue of full return into a new political battle. Therefore, there is still a difference between calling for greater rapprochement with Europe and making a formal decision to re-join.

Ten years after voting on secession, Britain does not appear to be facing an immediate decision to return to the European Union, as much as it appears to be facing reopening the file again. Birnam has put several paths on the table, from maintaining the status quo to returning to the single market or customs union, all the way to full membership.

On the other hand, European capitals seem more willing than in past years to discuss a closer British relationship, although a full return will require new conditions and negotiations. As the expected British-European summit in November approaches, the question that many thought had been resolved in 2016 returns to the heart of British politics: Was Brexit the end of the road with Europe, or has Britain already begun to search for a way back?