After Trump's support for Netanyahu... Will the election calculations change in Israel?

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US President Donald Trump's announcement of his support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the elections scheduled for October 27 raised questions about the ability of this support to enhance his chances of retaining power, at a time when the bloc he leads faces challenges related to forming the next government, amid competition with opposition forces and the repercussions of the war with Iran on the one hand, and the Gaza Strip on the other.

About 8 days before the Israeli elections, and in a remarkable shift after months of Trump refraining from declaring his support for Netanyahu, the US President described him, through his “Truth Social” platform, as “a great warrior prime minister” and an important partner in confronting Iran. While he said in an interview with Axios that he had intended to announce his support from the beginning, but he did not want to do so early.

Observers considered that Trump’s support for Netanyahu, who is facing internal pressure, represents a “boost” ahead of the Knesset elections scheduled for October 27, at a time when political tension has escalated with the return of anti-government protests to the streets, according to the American newspaper “The New York Times.”

Meanwhile, Netanyahu's internal crisis appears clear with opinion polls indicating that the diverse bloc led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot and including parties from the centre, right and left will garner the largest number of votes. But he will not obtain a majority, at a time when Israeli sectors are mobilizing in an effort to overthrow the Prime Minister and end the rule of the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, according to Reuters.

Also, a poll published by the Zaman Israel website a few days ago showed that Eisenkot’s party led with 26 seats in the Knesset, compared to 20 seats for the Likud Party.

However, the Jewish parties opposing Netanyahu together obtained 54 seats, compared to 49 seats for his camp, without either party being able to reach the required majority, which amounts to 61 seats out of 120.

Despite all of this, Trump's announcement represented a precedent in American-Israeli relations, as no American president had ever declared his public and explicit support for a candidate in the Israeli elections. Trump linked his position to his personal relationship with Netanyahu, and to their cooperation in the Iranian file, warning that the election of another Israeli leader might push the United States to continue the confrontation with Iran alone, according to Axios.

Netanyahu quickly responded by thanking the US President, saying, “Together we will complete the mission,” while the Likud Party quickly published a video clip containing previous statements by Trump praising the Israeli Prime Minister.

For his part, the academic specializing in Israeli affairs, Ahmed Fouad Anwar, said that Trump’s announcement of his support for Netanyahu came after a relative improvement in the latter’s results in opinion polls, noting that Trump did not announce his support for him about a month ago, when he was in his weakest electoral position.

Anwar said in an interview with Al-Arabiya.net/Al-Hadath.net that the electoral scene is currently witnessing a rapprochement between the Netanyahu camp and the ruling coalition on the one hand, and the change camp led by Gadi Eisenkot on the other hand, which makes the timing of American support a factor worth considering, without assuming that its electoral impact will be in one direction.

He also considered that Trump's support may carry, in the eyes of sectors of the Israeli interior, connotations that go beyond direct political support, as it may be interpreted as an indication that Netanyahu will lead a new military confrontation against Iran despite the state of exhaustion that the Israeli interior is experiencing, which makes some of them more inclined for Washington to undertake this task.

He also pointed out that Trump's support carries positive aspects for Netanyahu and his camp, but it also includes potential negative elements, especially at this sensitive time, as he may provoke others and push them to vote for the opposition camp, making American intervention a factor that may work in two opposite directions within the electoral battle.

At a time when Al-Arabiya's advisor for Israeli affairs, Magdi Al-Halabi, considered Trump's support for Netanyahu an "important political boost," but he stressed that this does not necessarily mean changing the map of the electoral competition, in light of the presence of multiple internal factors that may prevent Netanyahu from returning to the presidency of the government or enabling him to form a coalition that has a majority of 61 seats in the Knesset.

Al-Halabi told Al-Arabiya/Al-Hadath that it is difficult at this stage to determine whether American support will constitute a decisive factor in the elections, noting that the high participation rate among Arab citizens inside Israel may affect the calculations of the two competing camps, and impose different coalition scenarios, including the formation of a national unity government or a government that enjoys the support of Arab parties.

He also mentioned that the last days before the vote will be decisive in determining the attitudes of voters, especially those who are hesitant, whose motives may vary between security concerns, the repercussions of the confrontation with Iran, and economic and living conditions, making measuring the impact of American support complicated.

On the other hand, Al-Halabi pointed out that Trump’s announcement of his support for Netanyahu carries contradictory connotations. On the one hand, it enhances the image of the Prime Minister as a leader who enjoys the trust of the American President, but on the other hand, it raises questions within Israel about the return that Netanyahu may have offered to obtain this support, and whether he will be forced to adopt Trump’s approaches on controversial regional issues.

An American official revealed that intense pressure was exerted on Trump during the past weeks with the aim of pushing him to declare his support for Netanyahu, according to what was reported by the Israeli “Wala” website, adding that this pressure came from Trump’s advisors and aides, and through private conversations.