Analysis: Trump Fights the Battle in His Strongholds.. and Democrats' Hopes Rise Before the Midterms

Analysis by Stephen Collinson from Horizon News - Republicans find themselves in a defensive position to hold onto areas they never expected to be threatened just four weeks before Election Day, while U.S. President Donald Trump urges voters not to abandon his party, promising them more direct financial assistance. Meanwhile, one of the senior White House advisors argued on Sunday, via Horizon News, that "partisan polling experts" are wrong in claiming that voters are financially struggling; a message indicating a gap between the reality of the country and a president who boasts of a "golden age" for the economy.

Polls released over the weekend indicated increasing risks faced by the Republican Party, as Democrats lead or are in tight races in states that Trump easily won two years ago, amid signs that Latino voters, who helped bring him back to the White House, are beginning to drift away from him. The ongoing war with Iran continues to weigh heavily on Republicans as the final phase of the midterm elections approaches, with few signs that high gasoline and diesel prices will return to lower levels soon, or at least in time for voters to feel the difference before November 2.

However, polls conducted four weeks before the elections do not definitively predict their outcomes, as there is palpable concern among Democrats who are still haunted by painful memories of past defeats against a president who is now putting all his weight into the final weeks of the race. This heated political battle highlights the critical stakes of this election; Democrats are seeking to seize the majority in both the House and Senate, a majority they are likely to use to conduct extensive investigations into the White House during Trump's tenure and the financial affairs of his family during the final years of his presidency.

Democrats need to win a few seats to regain control of the House of Representatives, where they currently hold 214 seats compared to 219 for Republicans, including an independent member who joins the majority bloc. They also need to achieve a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate, in a battle that carries the enticing possibility of facing off over the nomination of a new Supreme Court justice, after conservative Justice Samuel Alito told CBS News that he is considering retirement at the end of each judicial term.

In an attempt to overcome low approval ratings hovering around 30%, Trump held a campaign event on Friday in Alabama, which is a stronghold of the Republican Party. He spoke on Saturday at a campaign rally in Ohio, which he won by an 11-point margin in 2024, but the competition there this year for a Senate seat appears to be very close and difficult to predict.

The schedule of his campaign tours is another indicator that his party is in a defensive position one month before the elections. He urged Republican voters in the "Deep South" to "imagine my name on the ballot," and spoke extensively about the unprecedented "golden age" that he claims to have achieved.

In a clear attempt to make his message more appealing, the White House announced a disbursement of $90 to about 20 million seniors enrolled in the Medicare program - Part B. Trump had promised last month to give every adult American $5,000 if Republicans win the midterm elections.

In Ohio on Saturday evening, the president bluntly promised his voters victory over the Democrats, provided they turn out in huge numbers to vote, saying: "We will achieve a landslide victory, and we will teach them a harsh and humiliating lesson." Trump's aide to Afaq News: The talk about "frustrated" voters is incorrect; the White House is making significant efforts to counter the narrative that Americans are suffering from economic pressures.

In his remarks on the "State of the Union" program on Afaq News on Sunday, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, told Jake Tapper: "The fact that polling institutions - which may be politically biased - are telling us that people feel extremely frustrated is a classic Democratic tactic." Hassett blamed former President Joe Biden for rising food prices, considering that the government data released on Friday - which showed only 29,000 jobs added in September - represents an exceptional and anomalous situation.

In contrast, Democrats believe that such descriptions reflect a state of denial within the White House. Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona said on CBS's "Face the Nation": "People cannot afford to live," describing Trump's financial promises as an attempt to "buy votes."

Republican Senator John Kennedy from Louisiana warned that the cost of living is the most prominent issue in the elections, stating: "We have to tell the truth to the American people." He added on NBC's "Meet the Press": "We continue to tell them not to believe what their false accounting books show them."

Kennedy said: "The American people - of all orientations - feel angry. And if they do not feel angry, they feel deep sadness."

Multiple polls support Kennedy's statements about the economy; in the latest poll conducted by CBS News over the weekend, 70% of voters said Trump's policies are driving prices up. Additionally, 56% believed that Trump's policies are responsible for the current economic situation, while only 20% held Biden accountable.

In a poll conducted by the Associated Press and NORC last week, 69% of adults said Trump's performance regarding the cost of living was worse than expected. Democrats have provided only scant details on what they will do to reduce the cost of living.

However, in the midterm elections that are shaping up to be a referendum on an unpopular president, that may not be a significant matter. Trump complained that "no one is promoting" the fact that "there is no economy that compares to this economy."

Yet, he himself does not adhere to a single consistent message; he seemed to have posted the mobile number of Republican Senator Tom Cotton from Arkansas on social media on Saturday amid a dispute over daylight saving time. On Sunday, he launched a scathing attack on Fox News for not adequately covering his campaign rally in Ohio, and filled his Truth Social platform with photos of himself with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and AI-generated images calling for the annexation of Greenland.

An electoral map that was once thought to represent a problem is now brimming with opportunities for the Democrats. The Senate election map was once believed to favor the Republicans, but it now appears more challenging for the party that currently controls both the House and Senate, thus monopolizing power in Washington. On Friday, a major Republican-aligned political action committee halted its spending on a seat held by a Republican in North Carolina, where Republican candidate Michael Watley is lagging in the polls.

New polls conducted by The New York Times in collaboration with Siena College and published on Saturday showed Democrats leading in the electoral races for Senate seats currently held by Republicans in Alaska and Texas. The polls also revealed that there is no clear frontrunner in the electoral races in Ohio, Kansas, and Iowa; results that will also please the Democrats because these seats are currently held by Republicans, and because Trump achieved overwhelming victories in them in 2024.

Trump's economic approval rating ranged at 40% or lower in all of these states, and about half of the voters surveyed expressed a desire for a candidate capable of reining in Trump and exercising oversight over him. Close electoral competitions are also heating up in Michigan, where progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is seeking to maintain Senator Gary Peters' seat, who intends to retire, for the Democratic Party; and in Maine, where Democrats hope to finally wrest the seat from veteran Republican Senator Susan Collins.

In another danger sign for the Republican Party, a new poll conducted by NBC and Telemundo on Sunday revealed that Latino voters prefer Democrats to win Congress by a margin of 24 percentage points. Trump's overall approval rating among Latino voters does not exceed 27%, while 20% of them support his handling of the cost of living issue.

In the 2024 elections, Trump made historic inroads among nearly all segments of the Latino community, raising hopes among some Republican strategists for a permanent shift in loyalty from this voting bloc. However, the intensive deportation campaign pursued by the White House has provoked a backlash.

In states with very close races, such as Texas, where Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico raises hopes for his party's first statewide victory in over 30 years, the distancing of Latino voters from Trump could be highly significant. Voter sentiments can change in the final weeks leading up to the elections, and Trump insists that pollsters always underestimate the support for the 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) movement.

It would not be surprising if the major races became closer, especially if Trump's base rallies to support him one last time. Trump urged Americans during his rally in Alabama to recognize that he has made 'tremendous progress,' promising them 'new levels of greatness.'

However, the evidence indicating a nationwide concern about the cost of living appears compelling. Given that Trump has pledged to address this issue in 2024, the outcome of the election may hinge on a simple question: Do voters believe his promises of a coming 'golden age'?