Bagram Ignites Competition.. Moscow Refuses and Trump Wants to Return

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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov renewed Moscow's firm rejection of the deployment of NATO military infrastructure in Afghanistan and neighboring countries, stressing that this will not be accepted "under any pretext."

Lavrov's statements, made during the opening of the "Moscow Format" consultations on Monday, coincide with a warning from Russian National Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu about the efforts of the United States, Britain, and Germany to get closer to the Taliban leadership, despite not officially recognizing its government. The Russian official, in statements to the Afghan newspaper Tolo News, said that Western countries are trying to restore NATO's military presence in Afghanistan, linking the expansion of relations with Kabul to this goal.

He also accused Western intelligence agencies of assisting in the transfer of militants to Afghanistan, claiming that there are about twenty terrorist groups comprising more than twenty-three thousand fighters.

In parallel, the official called for the resumption of communication between Afghanistan and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization through a contact group.

The combination of the rejection of Western presence and the strengthening of regional frameworks reveals a Russian inclination to manage the Afghan file in collaboration with regional countries, rather than leaving space for the restoration of American military influence. From this perspective, Lavrov's warning to neighboring countries can be understood: Moscow also opposes arrangements that could allow for operations inside Afghanistan to be carried out from bases outside its borders. These concerns overlap with the interests of China, Iran, and Central Asian countries, which make Afghanistan's position sensitive to any new military deployment.

In contrast, U.S. President Donald Trump provided a clear impetus for his demand to regain Bagram Air Base. In September 2025, he announced that Washington was trying to recover the base, stating that it is an hour away from Chinese nuclear weapons manufacturing sites, a characterization that experts have reservations about.

Bagram is located north of Kabul and was a key center for air operations and supply during the American war, before the troops left in 2021 and control shifted to the Taliban. This history gives it military significance, while Trump links it to competition with Beijing, using its abandonment to criticize the withdrawal of the Biden administration.

However, regaining it does not automatically mean achieving a strategic gain; operating it, securing its surroundings, and ensuring its supplies within a landlocked country require significant resources and forces, and any American deployment could face armed threats and regional tensions.

Despite Russian warnings, Trump's desire does not equate to a collective NATO decision, which ended its Afghan mission in 2021. There has been no clear announced plan from the alliance to resume deployment, while the Taliban rejects the return of American military presence.

Thus, three positions gather around Bagram: an American ambition to regain a position that Trump sees as beneficial against China, a Russian rejection of the military return of the West, and the Taliban's insistence on maintaining their control. Between them, there remains a wide gap between the demand for the base and the ability to return to it.

Any potential agreement will require the approval of Kabul and security and supply arrangements, and it will not alone eliminate the objections of neighboring countries or the risks that have made the future of the base a subject of debate that extends beyond Afghanistan to the balances of the region.