Fear of Trump losing the elections and the war

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Nothing is as usual in war and negotiation between America and Iran. Even the Strait of Hormuz seems like a mystery. No one knows if it is closed, as the Revolutionary Guard says, or open, as the Pentagon declares. There is no system similar to Guardianship of the Jurist. There is no man sitting in the Oval Office, which is described as the most powerful office in the world, whose ambition is like President Donald Trump to rule America and with it the world as President Vladimir Putin rules Russia, President Xi Jinping China, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Kim Jong Un North Korea, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Turkey. He is behaving as if he had regained what historian Arthur Schlesinger called the "imperial presidency" from soft Democratic presidents, but Trump's problem in America is that the system is based on "check and balance," as its constitution was formulated by the founding fathers who raised the slogan "There is no king in America" ​​in the manner of Britain in the past. His problem outside the regime is that he is managing the Ukraine war in a way that no American or non-American president has ever done: everything is done day and night behind microphones and in front of cameras, and every hour is a different statement.

Putin, for example, began attacking Ukraine in February 2022 and, as the war approaches its fifth year, he is still unable to achieve all his goals and insists on continuing them. He talks about negotiations and a settlement, and sometimes sends a negotiating delegation to Türkiye and reaches understandings with Trump, but he does not stop the fighting. Everything is under fire. In the Korean War, the Vietnam War, and the Afghanistan War, as in the First and Second World Wars with the participation of the ancient European empires, America did not stop fighting until the end was reached: victory or defeat. As for Trump's war, it is with weapons and the stock market. An hour of fighting and an hour of truce. Keep an eye on the course of the battles and keep an eye on the prices of oil and gas. There was a oscillation between stopping the attacks and threatening the “mother of all bombs.” A willingness to integrate the Iranian economy into the global economy, followed by a stifling siege and threats to remove Iran from the map. A “memorandum of understanding” with Tehran mediated by Pakistan, not for understanding and implementation, but for what Washington called “reducing security burdens and obligations and reducing energy prices.” He moved between direct and indirect negotiation, amid the dangers of exorbitant attrition in a period of neither war nor peace.

What appeared in the war was its preludes before it.

Susan Maloney, Vice President of ProKnives, believed that "the hesitation in American participation gave an opportunity to a Middle Eastern player, Iran, which the regional quagmire gave it an opportunity to make a strategic breakthrough that weakened its opponents." Professor Mark Lynch, who noted that every president since Clinton who declared a desire to reduce American involvement in the Middle East found himself returning again to the same policies and the same wars, went so far as to say that “if the Gaza war left the future of America’s regional leadership in doubt, the Iran war confirmed the end of the American Middle East.” This is of course the opposite of what Trump sees, which is the end of Iranian influence and the rise of an American Middle East in an “Abrahamic” peace with Israel.

The question is: Why did Trump start the Iran war with Netanyahu if it was not his decision to go all the way in it? Did he work within a plan to ensure Tehran's surrender and sign a deal, or was improvisation the master and submission to internal pressure on Wall Street influential? It is clear that Trump violated the basis of America's power since World War II, which is alliances and partnerships. He went to a war without partners, unlike President George H.W. Bush in the "Desert Storm" war. Then he began to blame the partners and say that he does not need European allies, even though America has 30 military bases in Europe. When he feared losing the midterm congressional elections due to the rise in diesel prices, he made a deal with Putin to supply America and Europe with millions of tons of diesel, thus undermining the sanctions imposed on Moscow, including Europe’s refusal to buy Russian oil and gas, and throwing Zelensky and Ukraine under the road. The irony is that Russia is the main instigator of the establishment of what is called in Washington the “axis of turmoil” made up of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. According to former Defense Secretary and Intelligence Chief Robert Gates, “Never before has America faced four allied forces hostile to it,” but Trump suggests that dealing with them is easier than dealing with friends and allies.

It is not insignificant that a Pew opinion poll in 24 European countries reported that “the majority do not trust Trump to do the right thing regarding world issues.” What is surprising, amid the declared support for Netanyahu in the elections and the threat of completing the war on Iran, is the Vice President’s requirement that Tehran make clear commitments to abandon the nuclear project in exchange for a deal acceptable to America. There was no war over the nuclear issue alone. Nor was Tehran incapable of developing the nuclear program secretly amid declared commitments. There is no such thing as the end of Iranian influence without restricting the missile program and ending the armed arms associated with the Revolutionary Guard, assuming that regime change is beyond the goals.

According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Army, Amir Hatami, “Iran today is stronger and America is weaker than they were before the war.” Nothing is greater than Trump's exaggerations except the exaggerations of officials in Iran. Some fear: Amid Trump’s military and financial games, the president will lose the elections, the war, the allies, and America’s prestige.

Quoted from Independent Arabia