Reuters: Iran is preparing for escalation if it is exposed to new American attacks

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Reuters quoted its sources as saying that Iran is preparing for a broader and more powerful response if the United States resumes launching large-scale military attacks on it, while at the same time continuing its diplomatic efforts, which Iranian officials secretly see as unlikely to succeed.

This planning reflects the Iranian leadership's conviction that any new American campaign must be met with a stronger response than before, even as Tehran seeks to avoid escalation through talks.

Three senior Iranian officials and a source familiar with the discussions said senior leaders were reviewing plans to expand the scope of potential targets to include locations outside the Middle East.

Since Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian returned from New York last week, leaders and senior officials have focused on the scope and timing of any response if Washington launches another attack.

No final decision has been made, but planning has intensified at a time when neither side shows signs of being ready to make any concessions.

These deliberations come seven months after the conflict began with US-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28. A ceasefire agreement stopped major military operations on April 8, ending a phase of the war that lasted 40 days, but combat and military operations have been renewed from time to time since then.

Hamid Reza Azizi, a senior analyst on Iranian affairs at the International Crisis Group, said that Tehran is still unsure whether US President Donald Trump will launch another major military campaign or will choose more limited attacks, such as strikes on nuclear facilities. He continued, "But they seem determined not to respond merely symbolically to a symbolic move, and instead escalate the situation in the hope of re-establishing deterrence."

Tehran is also studying the political risks that Trump may be exposed to as a result of the conflict continuing for a long period. Opinion polls indicate that the war is unpopular with Americans, and high fuel prices remain a source of concern ahead of the midterm congressional elections.

Two of the officials said that Tehran had instructed groups allied with it in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq to prepare to support Iran in the event of a renewed large-scale US attack. They added that the directives are to prepare for a coordinated response extending “from the Strait of Hormuz to American interests in the region and outside the Middle East,” as they put it.

Despite all this, Tehran still maintains an open channel for negotiations even as it prepares for a broader war.

Behind Iran's calculations lies a second concern, which is the extent of its economy's ability to withstand a prolonged confrontation in light of the American blockade that has cut off oil exports, a vital source of income. Year-long sanctions and worsening economic hardship have increased pressure on ordinary Iranians.

At last week's UN General Assembly meeting in New York, Tehran presented a proposal to Washington through Qatari mediators, acceptance of which would have opened the Strait of Hormuz and halted hostilities across the region within seven days.

Iranian authorities say the proposal calls for an end to the fighting, lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports, releasing at least $12 billion in frozen Iranian funds, and issuing exemptions from sanctions imposed on the oil sector.

On Saturday, Trump announced his rejection of the proposal. However, official Iranian media reported that an American response arrived in Tehran via Qatar on Tuesday, and is currently under review.

Iranian sources said that Washington wants to include the controversial Iranian nuclear program in the negotiations, but Tehran insists that the nuclear talks cannot begin until its seven conditions are met and not before that.

One of the officials said: “Even if Iran does not categorically reject the US response and indirect talks continue, it is very unlikely that the two sides will reach an agreement.”

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said the prospects for diplomacy remain limited.

He added: "Iran cannot tolerate the continuation of the American blockade, which may constitute a major turning point and essentially deprive the regime of oxygen... and escalation at this stage is possible."

Since the start of hostilities, the pace of the conflict has varied between periods of calm and renewed attacks, killing thousands of civilians, weakening Iran's military capabilities, and damaging an already fragile economy.

For the United States, the war failed to achieve Trump's goals and also exhausted the Pentagon's stockpiles of missiles.

Iran and its allies sought to raise the cost to Washington by expanding the conflict in the region, disrupting the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and increasing the risks threatening global energy markets.

An informed source close to the decision-making process said that the combination of military pressure and economic restrictions has become more difficult for Tehran’s rulers.

This tension also fuels concerns within the leadership about internal stability.

A former senior reformist Iranian official said the leadership feared a repeat of the protests that broke out in January, when dire economic conditions caused unrest across the country.

The official added: "Facing internal unrest at a time when the regime is exposed to American pressure and bombing may pose a very serious challenge to the legitimacy of the ruling establishment."

As the anniversary of the January unrest approaches, authorities have tightened security measures as they try to mobilize the masses and encourage loyalists to return to night gatherings.

Rights groups reported that the government intensified its campaign against the opposition during the war.

Amnesty International said in May that the authorities had arrested more than six thousand people since the start of hostilities, while United Nations investigators pointed in a report issued in September to mass arrests, torture, and increased use of the death penalty.