Russia is preparing for a massive campaign to plunge Ukraine into darkness and cold

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Russia is preparing to launch a massive campaign against the energy infrastructure in Ukraine during the winter, in an attempt to plunge Ukrainian cities into darkness and cold and disrupt water supplies, according to a Russian document that Kiev said it obtained through intelligence interception, and a copy of which was seen by the New York Times.

The document, dated August and written in Russian, reveals a plan to carry out systematic attacks using up to a thousand missiles, drones and bombs, targeting electrical transmission stations, thermal and hydroelectric power plants, and heating facilities.

According to the newspaper, Ukrainian Energy Minister Denis Shmyhal presented the document to European partners in Paris two weeks ago, and presented it as a Russian plan aimed at bringing down the Ukrainian energy system through a series of gradual strikes.

The plan includes targeting the electricity distribution yards linked to the three operating Ukrainian nuclear plants, with the aim of forcing them to stop working. The distribution yards are located less than a mile from the reactors.

The document also indicates that the water system, including pumping stations and wastewater treatment facilities, was targeted by dozens of ballistic missiles and slip bombs, in an escalation that would add a water crisis to the electricity and heating crisis.

The plan sets Kiev, Kharkiv and Odessa as main targets, seeking to reduce electricity supplies in these cities by up to 90%, reduce heating supplies by an approximately similar percentage, and significantly disable sewage systems.

The New York Times said that it was unable to independently verify the authenticity of the document, but Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly announced that Moscow was preparing for a massive campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure during the winter, and presented it as a response to the Ukrainian attacks that targeted Russian oil refineries.

Ukraine began its preparations for winter months ago, spending hundreds of millions of dollars to repair power plants and conversion stations. It also established smaller gas-fired facilities that are difficult to target, and strengthened the ability of the electricity network to deal with high demand and redistribute energy when transmission lines were damaged.

But energy experts warn that these measures may mitigate the effects of attacks without preventing them. Olena Pavlenko, head of the DXI research group specializing in energy, said that four winters of war have weakened the electricity grid to such an extent that facing a new winter is like “running a marathon with one lung.”

Last winter, Kiev residents suffered power outages that sometimes lasted for more than 12 hours a day, while the loss of power led to the stopping of water pumps and elevators in many residential buildings.

The Russian plan indicates that the attacks will be carried out in three stages: targeting the conversion stations near the western border that receive electricity from Europe, then targeting the hydroelectric power stations, and finally targeting the facilities associated with the three operating nuclear stations.

According to the document, the ultimate goal is to destroy approximately 15 gigawatts of electricity production capacity, an amount roughly equivalent to the capacity that Ukraine had at the end of the summer.