The United Nations warns: The world is close to exceeding the most dangerous limit for global warming

Bethlehem - Ofoq News - A United Nations report said today, Wednesday, that global greenhouse gas emissions remained at record levels in 2025, warning that the Earth may warm by 2.6 degrees Celsius this century even if governments fulfill their recent climate pledges.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said when he launched the “Emissions Gap Report” that “emissions are still at record levels... and national climate plans and current policies are dangerously below the required level, and indicate warming of between 2.6 and 2.8 degrees Celsius.”

The report also showed that global warming is currently expected to exceed previous estimates, with the most optimistic forecasts predicting that average temperatures will rise to between 1.7 and 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by mid-century.

Despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy and climate policies that are reducing emissions in many countries, the report said “urgent and aggressive” reductions are needed to achieve the best possible outcomes.

The UN Environment Program report says greenhouse gas emissions must fall 18% below 2025 levels by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040. Current national plans limit emissions to reduce emissions by only five to eight percent by 2030, and 11 to 15 percent by 2035.

The report expects global temperature to rise by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 under current policies, or 2.6 degrees Celsius if countries fully implement their current climate commitments. Both estimates are higher than last year's forecast, a reflection of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised assessments of historical emissions.

As countries prepare for the next round of climate talks in Turkey, the 31st Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP31), UN Secretary-General António Guterres said it is imperative not to abandon efforts to curb emissions, which fuel floods, fires and other natural disasters.

He added, "Exceeding the limits does not mean surrender. We can still keep this transgression in the narrowest scope and for the shortest possible period, and return temperatures to below 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century."

Countries agreed under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement to try to keep the average temperature increase well below 2 degrees, ideally 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Considering that limiting the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, while not exceeding this threshold or exceeding it to a limited extent, is no longer possible, the United Nations Environment Program stated that its new possibility, which represents the “lowest possible exceedance,” provides an approximately 50% chance of temperatures returning to the level of 1.5 degrees Celsius or lower by 2100.

The report stated that climate plans presented since last year have made almost no difference in future global warming projections, and that a return to 1.5 degrees Celsius will depend on widespread decarbonization, which is uncertain.