The extinction of humanity... What does artificial intelligence have to do with this ominous scenario?

- More than a dozen “interconnected catastrophic threats” pose a significant risk to global health and well-being during the remainder of the 21st century, but targeted action by world leaders could help avoid the worst-case scenarios, researchers report. A panel of 35 leaders from diverse sectors estimated the total years of good health that the world's population would lose to disease, disability or premature death from a range of threats, based on data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Global Burden of Disease study.

Their findings, published in The Lancet, identified 17 threats that pose the greatest risk but are also subject to effective intervention. These threats include health conditions and behavioral patterns, such as obesity, high blood pressure, smoking, and mental health problems, as well as economic conditions, environmental changes, technology, and conflict.

The panel concluded that together these threats could cause the equivalent of tens of billions of years of health lost if current trends continue. “The striking finding lies not only in the magnitude of these threats, but also in the fact that humanity still has the capacity to take effective action,” said co-chair of the new commission and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, Dr. Christopher Murray.

He added in a statement: “For all 17 catastrophic threats, the decisions leaders make today will shape the health and well-being of the next generation. But postponing action will only shift and increase costs into the future.”

The committee also concluded that there are two threats that could lead to extinction or extinction: nuclear conflict and the malicious use of artificial intelligence. Last month, IPO documents for artificial intelligence company Anthropic indicated that its models could pose a “catastrophic or existential risk to humanity,” and industry insiders have warned that artificial intelligence could lead to the extinction of the entire human race, perhaps within this decade.

Estimates from different agencies, which collaborated with The Lancet's new commission, also showed "significant variation" in assessing disaster risks associated with artificial intelligence, the new report says. But the panelists also point out that the emergence of powerful AI systems is an example of “how quickly assumptions about stability collapse,” along with evidence from other “recent global shocks,” including the coronavirus pandemic, the ongoing Ebola outbreak in Africa, and accelerating climate impacts.

The amount of healthy life years potentially lost due to the malicious use of AI is estimated at 10.4 billion years globally by 2100, roughly the same as the risk from other threats, such as pandemics and obesity. But since there has not yet been “a global AI-related event,” estimates of risks associated with this area remain only theoretical, while risks associated with obesity are based on real-world data.

The goal of the new commission is not to prioritize threats, but to “catalyze international, regional and national action to protect and advance the future of health and humanity,” according to a related editorial in The Lancet. “Recent global events show us how quickly stability can turn into a crisis, and how costly it is to respond to events only after a disaster strikes,” explains Dr. Natalia Kanem, former Executive Director of UNFPA and co-chair of the new commission.

Global health threats may also exacerbate existing inequalities, with the greatest burdens falling on the most vulnerable communities. She continued: “Governments and societies must act decisively, starting today, to protect health and build a more just, peaceful and secure future for future generations.”