The last battle...the Houthis and the Tehran timing dilemma

The Kuwait negotiations between the Yemeni government and the Houthis were the longest since the start of the Houthi conflict with the Yemeni state in 2004, and across six successive wars, the negotiations continued for 90 days and reportedly 101 days. The United Nations special envoy to Yemen, Ismail Ould Sheikh - who is now the Secretary-General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation - agreed on the peace plan, so Muhammad Abdel Salam suddenly asked to leave Kuwait before signing and went to meet an Iranian delegation, so Tehran asked not to sign and that they had received money after signing the (5+1) agreement, so Muhammad Abdel Salam returned to Kuwait and refused to sign the agreement. August 2016 is the new Iranian stage to subjugate Al-Houthi politically, militarily and economically and make his decision in Tehran and not in Saada. Here, the development of Al-Houthi’s military capabilities began in three dimensions: Ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. The second dimension is the presence of three thousand experts from the Revolutionary Guard and a select few from the Quds Force, the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, and the Lebanese Hezbollah to plan and manage operations and training. The third dimension is the flow of funds for recruitment from outside its popular incubator. Al-Houthi has followed in the footsteps of the Lebanese Hezbollah, and he has not returned the Yemeni political faction that went to the comprehensive Yemeni dialogue, the important outcomes of which were formulated in January 2014. He has not returned even the Houthi that turned against legitimacy and entered Sanaa in September 2014, and he has not returned even the Houthi that went to the marathon Kuwait negotiations, which were aborted by Tehran’s decision and a new Iranian political discourse with the Haider Moslehi trilogy (control of four capitals). Arab), Ali Younesi (Iran today has become an empire as it was throughout history, and its capital is currently Baghdad), and Percy (Cyrus II savedJewish rabbis from the Babylonian captivity. After a period of time, in February 2026, it appeared to Al-Houthi that the Guardianship of the Jurist regime might fall after the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and 133 political and military leaders and experts in the nuclear field. He calmed down and did not get involved in the conflict, relying on the fact that he had a truce with America since May 2025. Tehran was monitoring the Houthi scene with extreme precision, realizing that he was its most important card after the weakening of Hezbollah and the diminishing of its influence on it. Strait of Hormuz, thus throwing the Houthi's last card into the furnace of the incinerator before the American midterm elections. The Houthis moved on September 3, 2026, by launching 14 missiles at Mokha, and within seven days, they took control of Bab al-Mandab, the grand prize for Iran, after the fragility of its influence over the Strait of Hormuz. Within three weeks, Tehran lost the Battle of Bab al-Mandab, a loss similar to its loss in 1988, after which Khomeini swallowed poison and accepted Security Council Resolution 598, which ended the Iran-Iraq war. Because the field’s calculations were different from Al-Baydar’s, Tehran did not realize that (Yemen Dawn) had four effective reasons to achieve the liberation of Sana’a and greatly reduce the Houthi’s capabilities and return it to before September 2014; Firstly, Al-Houthi moved on Tehran’s time without a good reading of the regional and international scene. Secondly, after eliminating the rebellion of the Transitional Council in December 2025, Yemeni legitimacy has become largely unified in political, military and security decision-making. Thirdly, Saudi Arabia is making a new difference by establishing the Mecca Pact and the multinational maritime defense alliance. Fourthly, Iran has weakened very significantly. Tehran, which launched 400 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and aircraft in one day, no longer exists. Marching in April 2024,It is facing the most severe war on it since 1979, militarily, economically, and politically, and a clear breakdown in its social fabric. There is no doubt that the success of Yemen Dawn, after Iran’s loss of Syria and the weakness of Hezbollah, will give the region a momentum of stability that it has not witnessed since September 2014.