Three Years Later.. Netanyahu Faces the October 7 Calculations in the Israeli Elections

Israel commemorates today the third anniversary of the October 7 attacks, three weeks before elections in which the personal responsibility of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the worst security failure in the country's history is expected to be a key focus of the electoral battle.

The elections hold particular significance for Netanyahu, who has never appeared more politically vulnerable than he has in the weeks following the October 7 attacks. However, contrary to the expectations of his opponents, he has managed to keep his government intact while leading the country through simultaneous wars and maintaining Israel in a state of near-permanent emergency.

Despite the close results of opinion polls, they leave Netanyahu with a clear path to remain in power again, in a political career for which he is known for his ability to navigate crises and survive the toughest turning points, according to a report by Axios.

However, the events of October 7 continue to cast a heavy shadow over Israel and Netanyahu's candidacy. The opposition accuses him of refusing to take responsibility for the failures that preceded the attacks and of preventing the formation of an independent commission to investigate the circumstances of the Hamas attack that resulted in the deaths of around 1,200 people.

All senior officials in the national security apparatus who held their positions at the time of the attack have resigned, except for Netanyahu. Former Chief of Staff of the Israeli army, Gadi Eisenkot, is considered Netanyahu's most prominent rival. Eisenkot lost his son and two of his nephews during the war in Gaza, and those close to him say his primary mission is to replace Netanyahu, whom he holds responsible for allowing the October 7 attacks to occur.

In contrast, Netanyahu blames what he calls the 'deep state' for the failure. His political and media allies, along with his wife Sara Netanyahu, have spread conspiracy theories suggesting that Israel was betrayed by its security leadership.

Netanyahu himself stated that senior security officials deliberately kept him away from information, implying that he could have prevented the massacre if they had awakened him when early signs of an imminent attack began to appear. Recent reports indicate that Netanyahu did indeed receive warnings, albeit partially, before the October 7 attacks.

The newspaper 'Haaretz' and other media outlets, including the 'New York Times', reported that Netanyahu received warnings days before the attacks that Hamas was planning a major operation, which the Israeli Prime Minister denied.

Although these reports sparked extensive debate within Israel, the three violent years following October 7 provided Netanyahu with an opportunity to rebuild his image among segments of Israelis as a strong and decisive leader. During this period, Israel experienced the war in Gaza, hostage releases, military operations against Hezbollah, as well as two wars with Iran.

These developments allowed Netanyahu to reintroduce himself as the leader capable of managing security and military crises, despite the ongoing debate regarding his responsibility for the failures of October 7.

Most opinion polls give Netanyahu's Likud party between 20 and 22 seats in the Knesset, compared to the 32 seats it won in the previous elections. The right-wing coalition he leads is projected to secure between 50 and 54 seats, which is below the 61-seat threshold needed to form a parliamentary majority. In contrast, the opposition also does not seem capable of securing a majority without the support of the Israeli Arab parties, which are expected to collectively win between 12 and 14 seats.

However, polls published by Channel 14, known for its closeness to Netanyahu, present a completely different picture, predicting that the Prime Minister and his coalition will secure a comfortable majority of 63 seats.

With the increasing shift to the right in Israeli society, Netanyahu is pressuring his main opponents to pledge not to form a coalition with the Israeli Arab parties. This political barrier may pose an obstacle for Eizenkot in reaching power, despite the possibility of him attempting to form a minority government.

Among the potential scenarios, if the results align with some polls, there could be a parliament without a clear majority, with Netanyahu continuing as the head of a caretaker government until new elections are held.

The elections are not only about Netanyahu's political future but could also determine his legal future. Losing power would mean losing the tools of influence that could help him delay his ongoing trial in corruption cases or affect its course.

If he wins, Netanyahu may argue that the Israeli people have politically acquitted him, which could push him to take stronger steps to obstruct the legal proceedings against him.

One of the questions is the position of U.S. President Donald Trump, who could give Netanyahu a significant political boost if he announces his support, but he has refrained from doing so so far. When Trump was asked several times recently by Time magazine whether he supports Netanyahu, he avoided answering directly.

According to two people who spoke directly with Trump, the U.S. president has privately blamed Netanyahu for the failures leading up to the October 7 attacks, and he has expressed concern that Netanyahu may have harmed Israel's international reputation.

However, Trump has remained close to Netanyahu during the war with Iran, and it is still possible that he will announce his support for him.

The Israeli elections are taking place one week before the U.S. midterm elections. If the Democrats regain control of either or both houses of Congress, a new political confrontation may arise over arms sales to Israel, and it could extend to the future of the annual U.S. military aid to Israel, which amounts to $3.8 billion.

The nature of this confrontation may depend on the outcome of the Israeli elections, and whether Netanyahu will remain in power or leave it.