Trump is waving the “mother of all bombs” against Iran...to open a loophole in the mountain of the ax or in the negotiations?

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The recent escalating threats between the United States and Iran are reminiscent of the atmosphere that prevailed before the war of last February 28. This creates the impression that the next war is no longer a matter of its probability of outbreak, but rather its timing. The only thing that can bring the two sides back from the brink of abyss is achieving a diplomatic breakthrough in the last quarter of an hour of escalation.

News continues from Washington about the military preparations ordered by President Donald Trump, the latest of which is plans to use what is called the “Mother of All Bombs” (GBU-43/B), which weighs 21,600 pounds and is considered one of the most powerful non-nuclear weapons in the American arsenal. Trump had previously allowed the US military to use this bomb against ISIS fighters in Afghanistan during his first term in 2017.

However, experts raise doubts about the extent to which the use of the “Mother of All Bombs” will contribute to achieving Trump’s strategic goals in Iran. This does not reduce the risks of resorting to this weapon, and the resulting increase in the level of conflict between Washington and Tehran.

The “Mother of All Bombs” is added to other military options, in light of an American build-up expected to include three aircraft carriers by the end of this October, and about 20,000 US Marines, while Trump is studying the possibility of launching a strike on Jabal al-Ax, two kilometers south of the Natanz nuclear facility. There are American and Israeli suspicions that Iran may be hiding part of its nuclear program in tunnels inside the mountain.

The message that Trump aims to send to Tehran is that America is fully prepared to fight a new war, and that what is missing is setting the zero hour.

On the other hand, how does Iran respond to American threats?

In recent days, several statements have been issued by the Revolutionary Guard and other Iranian officials, warning Washington of the consequences of launching new strikes. Guard spokesman Hussein Mohebi confirmed that “Iran is ready to respond to any new aggression with greater force than ever before,” adding that “the repercussions of any new aggression against Iran this time will be much more painful.”

The Iranian Tasnim news agency quoted the Commander of the Naval Forces of the Revolutionary Guard, Admiral Ali Azmaei, as threatening to sink American warships if they approached the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, stressing that his forces were monitoring the movements of the American Navy in the region.

The Iranian warnings coincided with the escalation of attacks on commercial ships trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz from the Omani route. Iran moved from targeting ships with projectiles to prevent them from crossing to the stage of sinking them, similar to what happened to the ship "Cape Dow", which flies the flag of Antigua and Barbuda, and the ship "GFS Pride", which flies the flag of Singapore.

This shift in Iranian attacks reflects Tehran's determination to keep confusion prevailing in global oil markets, and to exert economic pressure on Washington, in an attempt to influence the US midterm elections on November 3.

Therefore, Trump is intensifying his participation in Republican Party election rallies, seeking to raise the level of support for the party’s candidates, amid opinion polls that suggest that Republicans will lose control of at least the House of Representatives, while the competition for the Senate intensifies.

Under the pressure of the beating of war drums from both sides, mediators continue to transmit messages between Washington and Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi announced that his country had conveyed to the Qatari mediator ideas about implementing the Iranian conditions, and that it was awaiting a final response from America by next Tuesday.

Will mutual threats of war serve the function of pressure to provide momentum for the political track and return to the negotiating table, or will the Middle East be doomed to the outbreak of a new armed conflict, more disastrous this time?