An alarm bell for the Arab parties - the elections in the Israeli embassies are an indicator

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Elections for the Knesset were held at Israeli embassies, representations, and international Zionist organizations on October 15. The participation rate in the elections reached 86.7%, or 4,218 out of 4,863 holders of the right to vote in 99 embassies and representations, making the voting percentage increase compared to the 2022 elections by 17.1%, where it then reached 69.6%.

What is striking about early voting at embassies is the high voting rate of about 87%, which is an indicator, even if it is not sufficient in itself, of the extent of Israelis’ interest in the elections, which there is almost unanimous agreement that they are the most fateful in Israel’s history. It also indicates the depth and breadth of the feeling of real competition in Israel, between a camp that wants to remain in power at all costs and an opposition that seeks with all its might to overthrow it and take over the reins of power, and which wide circles are concerned that this may be its last battle for the long term.

As part of the coup in the systems, political appointments based on loyalty to Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Foreign Minister Sa’ar affect the diplomatic corps and all the senior officials of international Zionist organizations, including the Jewish Agency, the Jewish National Fund, Keren Hayesod, and the Zionist Histadrut, who enjoy diplomatic status. We do not currently know the content of the vote and for which parties, as these votes will be counted in the final stage of the general vote count on the day of the general elections on the 27th of this month. The same applies to the voices of soldiers on duty. While the army is witnessing a noticeable expansion in the level of soldiers and officers from religious Zionism, exceeding the proportion of this trend in parliamentary political representation, while most of the soldiers in compulsory service are among those voting for the first time, and among them there is widespread support for the far right.

If the participation rate in the early elections in the Israeli representations abroad is an indicator of the general voter turnout on the 27th of this month, this will pose a challenge to the Arab vote, as the Arab voter turnout is expected to rise from 53% in the previous elections in 2022 to about 70%, which is a noticeable increase, and the Arab parties and the Joint List and Unified List blocs are betting on it. Currently, this increase would translate into about 14-15 representatives, forming a decisive bloc that cannot be surpassed. While Israeli elections over the years have historically witnessed a large gap in the percentage of votes in favor of the Jewish community. While the increase in the voting rate among Arabs to about 70%, this will be higher than the rate of increase among Jews. It is also believed that the general voting percentage in Israel will not exceed that of a limited group available in the diplomatic corps and representations.

A fierce and unresolved competition within the Netanyahu bloc

In the three blocs, the far right, the center right, and the Arab bloc, efforts are being made to prevent any possible vote from being wasted. For this purpose, Netanyahu and his bloc are making great efforts to regain the support of votes displaced from his electoral base in favor of the opposition, estimated at about 20% of his supporters in the previous elections. Despite this, he has so far failed to put an end to the rift in his bloc and among the far-right parties, and his confusion regarding the fate of Ben Gvir appears to be an indication of this electoral crisis. After announcing that the Ministry of National Security would not be assigned to Ben Gvir, he returned to confirming that the latter would assume a highly important ministry without specifying it. However, this fluctuation only works to his disadvantage. On the other hand, Benny Gantz, head of the Kahol-Lavan party, has withdrawn from the electoral competition, and this is in the interest of the opposition and exclusively Eisenkot and the Yashar Party, which he heads. While Netanyahu seeks to force a withdrawal from the competition for the Amcha-Israel party, headed by Winter and in favor of Smotrich; Meanwhile, the conflict is intensifying between the religious Shas party and the Otzma Yehudit party, headed by Ben Gvir, in the wake of a fatwa issued by the spiritual leader of the Shas party, Rab Yosef, which forbids voting for Ben Gvir, given that he prayed in the Dome of the Rock and Al-Aqsa Mosque.

In return, Netanyahu received significant moral support from US President Trump, who called on the Israelis to support Netanyahu. Trump specified his support for Netanyahu as his partner in resolving the Iranian issue, while in reality, Trump acknowledged the American failure to resolve the battle and get out of the United States’ biggest strategic dilemma at the moment. According to most estimates, this support has an impact, but it is limited, given that the overwhelming majority of Israelis have decided on their position, and a new round of war with Iran is not desirable for Israeli society, given that it is not subject to Trump’s control and certainly not to Netanyahu’s control, and its consequences on the domestic front are still worrying to Israelis. The opposition tried to downplay the importance of Trump's statement, but what it obtained from Gantz's withdrawal from the competition was greater than what Trump's statement in favor of Netanyahu would lead to. This was indicated by the public opinion polls that became Trump's statement and preceded Gantz's withdrawal on October 19.

The challenge of the last days is to organize people's going to the polls

There is a week left until the elections date, and the possibilities of disrupting them seem to be declining, even if they have not disappeared. Netanyahu's camp may also have plans to suppress the Arab voice and disrupt it, since it is the decisive voice in bringing down his coalition, given the situation is closer to a tie between the two Zionist camps. In parallel, preparations focus on organizing the electoral process on the 27th of this month. The organization includes an integrated structure to ensure that people go to the polls and arrange for the transportation of those in need for assistance. In addition to the process of monitoring and counter-monitoring over the ballot boxes, protecting them, and preventing interference with the electoral process or creating clashes that would prevent its completion in opposition strongholds. In addition to an integrated plan by Likud and the far right to send 2,000 observers from the terrorist Hill Boys militia to monitor ballot boxes in Arab towns and communities, considering that suppressing voting in the Palestinian Arab community will enhance the chances of Netanyahu’s coalition.

In the Arab world, there is a state of general youth mobilization and popular motivation towards participating in the elections, and if the authoritarian obstacle to them is overcome, the participation rate may rise to a record high.

In conclusion; In contrast to the strong state of mobilization of the Arab voice, the high voting rate of about 87% in the Israeli embassies and representations, which took place on the 15th of this month, constitutes an incentive for the coalition and opposition blocs to urge the widest participation and build plans to ensure this participation. On the other hand, it poses a challenge to the Arab vote and requires an intensive campaign to raise the voting percentage to more than seventy percent.

The right realizes that a 20% increase in the voting percentage among Jews will seriously limit the impact of the increase in the voting percentage among the Palestinian Arab masses, seeking to avoid being brought down decisively and to ensure an advantage, even if slight, over the opposition bloc.

Trump's statement in favor of Netanyahu, and Gantz's withdrawal from the competition, pushes for a Zionist national unity government, not based on Arab parliamentary representation. While the possibilities are still high that Likud and its allies will disrupt the Arab voice and the rush of this public to participate in the elections in an effort to topple the ruling coalition.

It seems that Trump's support for Netanyahu is not free, but rather to rely on him functionally in the Iranian file and to blackmail him in the Gaza and West Bank files.