Ethiopian Dams on the Blue Nile: An Old Crisis Returns to the Forefront

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From an American plan dating back to the 1960s to Ethiopia's plans to build three major dams... Experts reveal the details and their potential repercussions on Egypt and Sudan.

Since the 1960s, discussions about the establishment of major dams on the Blue Nile have not ceased, but Ethiopia's renewed announcement of plans to create three new dams has brought the issue back into the spotlight, raising new questions about the objectives of these projects, their scale, and their potential impact on the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan.

These plans come after years of controversy surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which has become a central point in the water dispute between Cairo and Addis Ababa, with the three new dams presenting another chapter in the long story of Ethiopian projects on the Blue Nile.

What is the story of these dams? Do they return to old plans dating back to the 1960s? What are the storage capacities of the projects that Addis Ababa is talking about? Can they be implemented simultaneously? These questions are answered by former Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Dr. Mohamed Nasr El-Din Allam, and Professor of Geology and Water Resources at Cairo University Dr. Abbas Sharaki, in exclusive statements to "Al Arabiya.net" and "Al Hadath.net."

Dr. Mohamed Nasr El-Din Allam states that recent studies of the Blue Nile basin date back to the 1960s, when the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation conducted a comprehensive study that included proposals for the construction of several dams and water facilities on the Blue Nile.

Allam explained that one of the main dams in those plans was named 'Al-Hudood', due to its proximity to the Ethiopian-Sudanese border, which he believes corresponds to the location where the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was later built, noting that the proposed capacity for the dam at that time was much less than its current capacity.

The former Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation added that the three other dams that Ethiopia announced plans for have their roots, according to these plans, in the old American studies, pointing out that Addis Ababa had previously attempted to obtain approval from Egypt and Sudan for these projects during the Nile Basin Initiative period.

He explained that the initiative commissioned an international consulting firm to prepare preliminary feasibility studies for these dams, addressing their capacities, operations, and potential impacts on the downstream countries.

Allam noted that in 2010, a copy of these studies was presented to Egypt and Sudan, where a team of Egyptian experts evaluated them and prepared numerical models to measure the impact of the proposed dams on Egypt.

He stated that the Egyptian assessment concluded that these projects would have a significant impact on Egypt's water security and on the High Dam project, noting that Egypt officially informed Ethiopia and the Nile Basin Initiative of its rejection of these dams.

He added that a copy of the Egyptian study was also sent to international donor agencies, with the aim of preventing funding for any of these projects.

For his part, Dr. Abbas Sharaki, a professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University, said that the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation announced in 1964 the completion of a comprehensive study analyzing the hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin during the period from 1958 to 1963, coinciding with the start of the construction of the High Dam in Egypt.

Sharaki explained that the study included a list of about 33 water projects along the Blue Nile, including a series of four major dams with a total storage capacity of about 51 billion cubic meters, according to the American study.

He pointed out that the proposed capacities for these dams have increased in modern plans to about 190 billion cubic meters, noting that the most prominent of these projects is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which was inaugurated in September 2025 with a storage capacity of about 64 billion cubic meters, for electricity generation and irrigation purposes if possible, according to his presentation.

He added that the other three dams are "Karadobi," "Beko Abu," and "Mendaya," pointing out that these projects aim to generate electricity, in addition to regulating the sediment flow from the Ethiopian highlands into the Blue Nile basin, and alleviating the burden on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which may contribute to extending its lifespan.

Sharaki explained that the Blue Nile basin also includes irrigable agricultural projects, with a total area of about two million acres, most of which are located in scattered areas away from the sites of the four major dams.

He added that after the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the Ethiopian Minister of Water and Energy announced the development of additional hydropower projects, including the three major dams on the Blue Nile.

According to Sharaki, the "Karadobi" dam is located about 500 kilometers upstream from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, with a height of about 252 meters, extending across the borders of the Amhara and Oromia regions, with an electrical capacity of up to 1600 megawatts and a storage capacity of about 40 billion cubic meters.

As for the "Beko Abu" dam, its production capacity is about 2100 megawatts, with a storage capacity of about 37 billion cubic meters, while its height is about 285 meters, making it, according to Sharaki, the tallest in Africa if implemented.

The height of the "Mendaya" dam is about 200 meters, with a capacity to generate electricity of about 2000 megawatts, and a storage capacity estimated at about 49 billion cubic meters.

The professor of geology and water resources indicated that the total storage capacity of the three dams reaches about 126 billion cubic meters, while the average annual inflow of the Blue Nile is about 50 billion cubic meters, according to his estimates.

Sharaki believes that the simultaneous implementation of the three major dams on one river is extremely difficult from a technical standpoint, in addition to its potential impacts on the water inflow to Egypt and Sudan, especially during the initial filling periods of the reservoirs.

He stated that Ethiopian statements regarding the construction of new dams do not necessarily mean that they will begin implementation, pointing out that Ethiopia's transition to the construction phase will be a clearer indicator of the seriousness of executing these projects, and he considered that "Karadobi" might be the closest to starting, according to his estimate.

Allam believes that Ethiopia's continued implementation of new water projects on the Blue Nile, without considering the interests of the downstream countries, represents a development in the ongoing water disputes between Egypt and Ethiopia.

He stated that the current Ethiopian movements come, in his view, as part of ongoing attempts to influence the Blue Nile flows to Egypt and Sudan, criticizing what he described as Israeli support for Ethiopian projects.

In the same context, Sharaki believes that the announcement of the three dams at this time raises questions about the feasibility of their actual implementation, noting that the commencement of construction on one of them would be more indicative than mere statements about future plans.

The three proposed dams remain part of a broader file concerning Ethiopian water projects on the Blue Nile, at a time when the dispute between upstream countries and the two downstream countries continues regarding the management of the river's resources, amid Egyptian and Sudanese concerns about the impact of any new projects on water flows.