Everything you need to know about the upcoming Israeli elections

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Israelis go to the polls on October 27 to elect members of the Knesset, after three years that witnessed wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.

The elections largely revolve around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is seeking a new term after 18 years in power, but neither his camp nor the opposition camp has a clear path to obtaining a majority that would allow the formation of a government.

In light of the divided political system, the process of forming the new government may take weeks or even months before it is officially approved, according to the British newspaper, The Independent.

38 political parties are competing in the elections, but it is expected that most of them will not be able to garner enough votes to win one of the 120 seats in the Knesset.

The Israeli elections rely on a system of proportional representation at the level of the entire country, as voters vote for one party list and not for individual candidates, and each party’s share of seats is determined according to the percentage of votes it receives at the national level.

To enter the Knesset, a party must obtain at least 3.25% of the votes, which is equivalent to 4 seats.

But no party has ever won an absolute majority, so governments are usually formed through party coalitions. If the political parties fail to form a coalition with a majority of 61 seats, new elections are held.

Polling stations open at 7 a.m. local time and close at 10 p.m. Official results are scheduled to be approved on November 4.

But the process of forming a government may take a much longer time, usually ranging between 20 and 100 days. During the past two decades, no new government has been formed in less than 50 days.

After signing a coalition agreement, the Knesset will hold a special session during which the Prime Minister-designate will present the new government and its political program. Then an official vote is held, and if the new government gains confidence, its term begins.

These elections are, according to internal estimates, one of the most important elections in the history of Israel.

Its results may also have major repercussions on the Palestinians, and on Israel’s relations with its international partners, especially the United States and Europe.

Among the most prominent issues up for discussion is the issue of exempting religiously extremist Jews from military service, and how to investigate the failure that preceded the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, in addition to the future arrangements and possible concessions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank, and Lebanon.

The wars fought by Israel also imposed pressure on the economy, making the cost of living an important factor in voters' choices. It should be noted that the Israeli defense budget has doubled since 2023.

Two main camps of similar political size compete. The first includes far-right parties and is led by Netanyahu, while the other camp is led by Gadi Eisenkot, the former Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army.

While opinion polls show a great convergence between the two parties in the race for prime minister, Netanyahu's coalition may not be able to achieve a parliamentary majority.

According to the polls, the most likely scenario is that the right-wing and Haredi bloc, which includes the Likud Party led by Netanyahu and the Shas Party, will obtain between 52 and 54 seats. It is estimated that Likud's representation decreased to 19 seats, and Shas's share decreased to 6 seats.

On the other hand, the opposition camp led by Eisenkot is expected to win the largest number of seats, but the other liberal parties that could participate with him in a government coalition may collectively obtain a smaller number of seats than the right-wing camp.

Nimrod Nir of Agam Labs said, "The real political drama will begin the morning after the election." He also added: "The elections in Israel are not one match, but rather an entire tournament, and polling day is only the opening round."

He also added: "Our polls indicate that neither camp will likely be able to secure a ruling majority, which leaves three possible scenarios: a unity government that includes Netanyahu and more liberal parties, or an alternative coalition that enjoys the support of the Arab parties in the Knesset, or heading to new elections."