“I will not attack Iran before the midterm elections.” Why did Trump make this statement?

Analysis by Stephen Collinson - US President Donald Trump’s statement on Thursday that he would not attack Iran again before the midterm elections scheduled for next month represented an implicit acknowledgment of the damage being done to the hopes of the Republican Party as a result of a war that violated his promises to achieve a quick victory. Opposition to this conflict, and popular anger over the resulting rise in gasoline and diesel prices, is a major reason why Republicans are facing difficult or close congressional races in states such as Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina, states that Trump easily won two years ago.

From this standpoint, it appears that Iran has succeeded in its clear effort to exploit the midterm elections to inflict political damage on Trump. However, it has failed to convert this pressure into a retreat in which Trump would end the war on Iranian terms; This is one of the reasons why it is impossible to rule out an Iranian escalation during the next three weeks.

Trump's reference to the election schedule on Thursday is the clearest evidence yet of his awareness of the negative impact of the war on his party's candidates amid a heated battle for control of Congress. It is also a striking indication that he has fallen into the dilemma of his involvement in the Middle East - something that could be devastating to his party and his political legacy - after he had promised in his second inauguration speech only 20 months ago that his success would be measured by "wars we never fight." By keeping the option of resuming attacks open until after the midterm elections, the US President is providing a new clarification on how he might finally end a war that he said would continue for weeks, but which has now entered its eighth month.

At the same time, the possibility that Democrats will win control of at least one chamber of Congress in the November elections raises the possibility of a more significant and influential political showdown in Washington over financing the war, as well as over Trump's legal status in fighting it. The president wrote on the Truth Social platform that his blockade of Iranian oil exports and ships had brought the country into a “very bad situation,” adding, “We will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections.”

Trump's position regarding Iran has not been consistent; He often changed his strategy and statements, and sometimes apparently sought to confuse Iranian leaders. Therefore, there are doubts about whether his words this time carry ambiguous or contradictory connotations.

But he publicly announced his plans following reports published by The Atlantic and Axios magazines that he was considering resuming major combat operations before the November 3 elections, out of his desire to show firmness to voters and convince Americans that the end of the war and a decline in fuel prices are imminent. Launching strikes that might remind Americans how much they hate war seems to be a controversial strategy, especially since some Republicans running in close election races want to end this war.

“The war in Iran must end, and it must end quickly,” Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate candidate for Michigan, said in a video posted on social media late last month. Iran hoped that economic pressure would force Trump to change course.

Iran - the country that contributed to undermining the presidency of Jimmy Carter due to the hostage crisis that preceded the 1980 elections - previously played a role in the current election campaign by obstructing oil supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and other areas. This war poses a potentially devastating threat to some Republican candidates. Because it created a tangible link between Trump’s decisions and the rise in prices that burden household budgets.

In a new poll conducted by the Ofoq News Network and the SSRS Foundation on Thursday, more than 7 out of 10 voters in the states of Iowa and Ohio - where the two states are witnessing decisive competitions for Senate seats - reported that Trump’s policies led to an increase in the cost of living. A new Pew Research Center report released Thursday also showed that 74% of Americans are concerned about fuel and energy prices, compared to only 43% who felt this way before the outbreak of war.

Trump sought to separate the midterm elections from the war in an apparent attempt to limit Tehran's influence. The question throughout has revolved around whether Iran's ability to withstand the suffering caused by the war will exceed Trump's ability to bear the political repercussions resulting from the economic turmoil within the United States.

“They thought they could wait until I backed down,” Trump said during a Cabinet meeting in May. “They were saying, ‘We'll wait until he gets weaker, he has the midterms.’ But I don't care about the midterms.”

Late last month, he said: “I think we'll make a deal right after the election, because it doesn't make sense for them not to.” He added: "They are waiting to see how I will perform in the midterm elections."

Given his repeated retreat from his rhetorical and strategic positions during the war, Trump surprised some observers by sticking to his blockade strategy, following the recent wave of violence that broke out in late August and early September. His view that the United States is winning is supported by indications that Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, its most important strategic gain in this war, is beginning to weaken. Oil flows from the Gulf states (except Iran) returned to almost normal levels thanks to an operation coordinated by the US military.

However, this progress remains fragile; Reuters reported that the number of crossings of the Strait was limited to seven flights on Tuesday, the lowest level in more than two months, and 10 flights on Wednesday, following the escalation of attacks and harassment targeting oil tankers. Although officials confirm that the US blockade imposed on Iran is bearing fruit, it has not achieved any political gains that would support Republican candidates.

Gasoline prices remain at a stubbornly high level, averaging $4.36 per gallon nationwide, and diesel prices remain very expensive, despite falling from the record levels they reached last month. The reality of a multi-front war - which may expand at any moment - was clearly demonstrated with the intensification of fighting between the Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, causing the price of Brent crude oil to rise by 4% on Thursday.

This will likely mean more suffering for Americans at gas stations, and even if prices fall somehow before Election Day, no one will get back the extra money they have spent on gas since the start of the war. Therefore, the administration must return to repeating promises that the war will soon end. “I think it may take weeks or months,” Treasury Secretary Scott Besent said during the G20 talks on August 31. “It does not require a collapse of the (Iranian) economy, but rather that the regime comes to its senses.”

This sense of certainty may explain why Trump rejected Iran's offer, made in late September, to reopen the Strait and resume nuclear talks in exchange for an easing of the blockade, an offer that would have given him a political victory before the midterm elections. During his election campaign, Trump had difficulty convincing Americans of the viability of his strategy, even though it represented the most severe, comprehensive, and sustained form of economic pressure the United States had ever exerted against Iran.

There is no doubt that the United States is causing much more suffering inside Iran than what Tehran imposes on the Americans. Inflation rates are rising, and the local currency (the riyal) is collapsing. According to the New York Times, Iran's official news agency (IRNA) on Saturday quoted Iran's National Security Advisor, Mohsen Rezaei, as saying that the current circumstances are among the most difficult periods the country has faced.

But Trump's argument to voters that Iran's surrender is imminent still lacks credibility. On Tuesday, Rezaei warned that Iran would never surrender, writing on the

Trump did not rule out launching new attacks after the elections. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the US administration is sending another strike group centered around an aircraft carrier and an additional Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East. The newspaper reported that Trump recently told his aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran after the midterm elections.

Waiting until after the Americans vote would ease some of the direct political pressure on Trump, even if it led to a new skyrocketing in the prices of oil, gasoline, and diesel, causing discontent for millions of Americans. However, a Democratic victory in either the House of Representatives or the Senate may reduce the margin of maneuver available to him. Confrontations will erupt next year over presidential powers related to the war and financing of military operations against Iran, operations whose cost had reached $45 billion by mid-September.

A new wave of military operations will also put Trump before a familiar question: If the previous air strikes did not change Iran’s position, why would the new wave...