Political chaos after the decline of Netanyahu’s grip.. What is required to end the state of turmoil in Israel?

The wheel of the political system in Israel has begun to turn, but this does not necessarily mean that it will achieve tangible progress in the near future. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has lost the parliamentary majority that enabled him to remain in power over the past four years.

However, his main rival tasked with forming the government, Gadi Eisenkot, faces an uphill task to oust the longest-serving leader in Israel's history. Eisenkot theoretically has a clear majority, with 67 of the 120 seats in the Knesset (the Israeli parliament).

However, these seats are distributed among six parties with varying ideological orientations, ranging from right-wing parties to Arab parties. Here lies the challenge that Eisenkot, the new face in politics, must face in his quest to assume the prime ministership: How can he push these parties to cooperate, so that they support him on the one hand, and help him manage the government on the other hand?

For decades, Netanyahu has enjoyed the loyalty of political parties within his bloc. Even when these parties challenged his authority, he was adept at managing differences and keeping his coalition together.

As for Eisenkot, he does not have experience of this kind, and despite the presence of veteran politicians within his bloc, he must now find a way to lead them towards a common goal: forming a government to replace Netanyahu. In most elections held in Israel, as in almost any parliamentary democracy, one party receives clear support from a majority of members of parliament.

In the Israeli Knesset, this means obtaining at least 61 seats out of 120 seats. After the 2022 elections, Netanyahu won 64 seats, and then added four more seats after an additional party joined his coalition.

This gave him a strong majority of 68 seats, enabling the government to complete its full term for the first time since 1988. Netanyahu currently only has the support of 46 lawmakers, far short of the majority required to form a government.

In contrast, Eisenkot has the support of 67 seats, but the matter becomes more complicated given that not all of these parties agreed to work together. Could Israel witness a government that does not have a parliamentary majority?

The elections resulted in a complex stalemate, with neither party having a clear path to forming a government. The bloc that supported Netanyahu before the elections - which included 53 seats - was reduced to 46 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, after the extremist United Torah Judaism party refused to continue supporting it after it had been loyal to the prime minister for a long time.

As for the opposition, it won 67 seats, including 19 seats belonging to two Arab parties, the “Joint List” and the “Unified Arab List,” making them a decisive element in any attempt to oust Netanyahu. However, many Jewish Israelis - including some opponents of Netanyahu - do not consider the Arab parties to be legitimate partners.

However, these Arab parties can still support the so-called “minority government” from outside, by providing them with a parliamentary safety net. The minority government has fewer parliamentary seats than the 61 needed to form a stable coalition, but it remains in power thanks to the support of members of the Knesset outside the cabinet.

Under Israeli law, a simple majority is sufficient to form a government; So a government can take office if its opponents are divided and choose to abstain. Overthrowing the government is a more complex process, as it requires the support of more than half of the Knesset members for an alternative government.

Gadi Eisenkot's plan is to form what he calls a "national emergency government", which is a minority government consisting of four Jewish opposition parties that together hold 48 seats: the "Ya'shar" party (to which Eisenkot belongs), an alliance that includes former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, the "Israel Beytenu" party led by Avigdor Lieberman, and the "Democrats" (leftist) party led by Yair Golan. In this scenario, the Arab parties will not be part of the coalition, but they will ensure the provision of the parliamentary majority necessary for the government to remain in power, in exchange for obtaining various concessions.

Israel has had minority governments in the past, but never immediately following an election. Yitzhak Rabin's second government turned into a minority government after the "Shas" party - an ultra-Orthodox Jewish party - withdrew from its coalition in 1993.

That government continued in power for an additional two years thanks to the support of Arab parties outside the coalition. Another possibility is to seek the support of United Torah Judaism, also an ultra-Orthodox party.

Although this party is considered a traditional ally of Netanyahu, it refused to recommend it during the consultations conducted by the Israeli president after the elections. This opens the door to the possibility of the party abstaining from voting, or even supporting a minority government headed by Eisenkot, which would expand the political safety net beyond the borders of the Arab parties. But the party is likely to demand concessions from Eisenkot.

Who is obstructing Eisenkot's plan, and will the Haredi parties become "kingmakers"? The main obstacle facing Eisenkot currently is Avigdor Lieberman.

The former Minister of Defense, Foreign Affairs and Finance refuses to join any government that relies on Arab parties, under the pretext that this minority government will not last long and will only strengthen Netanyahu’s position. Instead, Lieberman proposes a different path: forming a coalition with 61 seats, which includes the Haredi parties and excludes the Arab parties.

He believes that once this coalition is formed, some representatives may defect from Netanyahu's Likud party. Lieberman backed down from his continued opposition to the participation of Haredi parties, but his plan clashes with one of the core commitments of the opposition, which is ending the comprehensive exemption of Haredi men from compulsory military service.

The ultra-Orthodox parties are seeking to establish this exemption, while Eisenkot, Lieberman and others have called for military service to be imposed on everyone. Any agreement in this regard will require a major ideological concession, which is still a long way off, as the Shas party remains loyal to Netanyahu, while the United Torah Judaism party has shown some openness.

Although Lieberman's strategy may undermine Eisenkot's path to form a minority government, the two sides are coordinating their next steps. Even before the government is formed, the opposition plans to exploit its parliamentary majority to control the Knesset, by replacing the Knesset speaker appointed by Netanyahu and other parliamentary officials, and then begin introducing legislation.

Can Eisenkot and Netanyahu share power in a national unity government? Netanyahu is exerting intense pressure against any political cooperation between Jews and Arabs.

In recent days, he has published two video clips calling for the formation of a “national unity government,” but he stipulates that this be done according to his own conditions, as he insists on remaining in the position of prime minister, while involving his entire right-wing and religiously extremist bloc (the Haredim). Unity governments in Israel are usually formed by the country's two largest parties, following political deadlock.

After the 1984 elections, Shimon Peres (Labour) and Yitzhak Shamir (Likud) took power together, sharing the position of prime minister under a rotational agreement. The two parties also cooperated again after the 1988 elections.

Netanyahu led two similar arrangements recently; In 2020, during the Corona pandemic crisis and after three election rounds that did not result in a decision, Benny Gantz joined him to form an emergency government. Gantz was supposed to assume the position of prime minister after 18 months, but Netanyahu searched for a way out to avoid stepping down, so he pushed for new elections by refusing to pass the state budget.

Following the attack on October 7, 2023, both Gantz and Eisenkot joined the “war council.” Eight months later, they submitted their resignations, justifying their frustration with Netanyahu’s way of managing the war in Gaza and his lack of a clear strategy.

Eisenkot described Netanyahu's calls for "national unity" as a "pathetic maneuver." He stressed that if Netanyahu truly wants to cooperate, he must sever his ties with his extremist partners and join a government led by Eisenkot himself.

While Netanyahu appears unwilling to abandon his bloc entirely, some analysts believe that he may eventually be willing to part ways with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, but not with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and the ultra-Orthodox parties. So far, Netanyahu has shown no indication that he is willing to make such a concession, while the opposition views his calls for unity as merely a tactic to undermine any government that might replace him.

Can Netanyahu still cling to power? For now, he continues to serve as caretaker prime minister until a new government is sworn in.

Eisenkot has 28 days - starting last Sunday - to negotiate with his bloc about ministerial positions, budgets and policies, with the possibility of requesting an extension of this period for an additional 14 days. If he fails, the assignment will be transferred to another candidate for a period of 28 days.

If Netanyahu receives the mandate, he will likely seek to woo a party or opposition lawmakers to join his bloc. Eisenkot, Bennett, Lieberman, and Golan have all announced that they will not join him.

Since his bloc lacks eight seats, he will need the defection of eight representatives, which requires achieving a very difficult goal. If he fails, the mandate returns to the Knesset for an additional 14 days to try to propose another candidate.

If this attempt also fails, the political stalemate will lead Israel to another round of elections. During that period, Netanyahu will continue in his position as head of a caretaker government.