Sudan is on the cusp of a new famine... and the weather increases fears

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Already struggling to harvest their crops since war broke out in 2023, farmers across Sudan are facing a new challenge that could push the country back into famine: the weather.

The El Nino climate phenomenon, which threatens areas of Africa with floods, has caused high temperatures and drought in Sudan, where pockets of famine have already appeared during more than 3 years of conflict, especially in areas under siege.

According to UN officials and relief experts, along with more than 20 farmers interviewed by Reuters, drought conditions are severely damaging crops and livestock in the southern regions, where agriculture depends on rainwater and which provides a large portion of Sudan's food.

Meanwhile, one of the major farmers expects that his crop this year will not exceed a quarter of what he harvested last year.

In a warning issued on October 12, the UN-backed Global Initiative for Food Security (IPC) said that “the risk of famine is increasing in many conflict-affected areas of Sudan, where El Niño-induced drought is worsening already dire conditions.”

US Geological Survey data also show that rainfall rates from July to September, which represents the peak of the rainy season, were the lowest in more than three decades across the country. In the western state of North Darfur, rainfall rates were the lowest since 1984, the same year that witnessed a devastating famine in Sudan and Ethiopia. In North Kordofan State in the Central Region, rates were the lowest since 1990, while Gedaref State in the southeast recorded the lowest rates since 1991.

The Food Security Interim Classification Initiative also reported in June that 5.1 million people in Sudan face acute hunger. The initiative is currently working to update these numbers. The numbers were supposed to decrease with the start of the harvest season in November and December, supported by a relative calm in fighting in some areas. But drought caused by El Niño is now expected to push those numbers even higher.

For his part, Samuel Clendon, director of the Sudan program at the United Nations World Food Programme, told Reuters in October that the program expects another 350,000 people to suffer from extreme hunger by the end of 2026, with this number rising to an additional 1.2 million people by August 2027. Clendon based this on numbers that were shared with donors, but were not widely announced.

While the World Food Program revealed that the most affected areas are Darfur and Kordofan.

In North Kordofan state, Maryam Omar pulls weeds growing between crops that should be about to be harvested, but instead appear wilted in dry, sandy soil. “This year is very bad,” says Maryam, as she works on her small land near the town of Umm Rawaba.

In turn, Muhammad Abdel Rahman, a farmer who owns about 420 hectares in the Umm Rawaba area, says that many farmers who were displaced due to the war have begun to return to lands ravaged by drought. Abdul Rahman, who also works as a sesame trader and provides financing to small farmers, estimates that about 40% of the land in the region will not yield any harvest.

In the livestock market in the city of El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan State, the ribs of cows protrude from under their dust-covered skins.

In this context, merchant Siraj Al-Din Abdul Latif says: “At this time of the year, the livestock are usually fat and everyone makes a profit. But now, with the scarcity of resources this fall season, the livestock have become lean.” He was speaking while counting banknotes of the Sudanese pound, which is witnessing a rapid decline in value, fueling inflation rates and exacerbating the suffering of the population.

The World Food Program is focusing its efforts on getting food to the 5 million people most in need, but notes that it cannot reach them all. Even for those it can reach, WFP has had to reduce food rations to ensure maximum use of limited resources.

As of October 17, WFP had $276 million to fund its operations in Sudan, an amount less than half of last year's budget. The program confirms its need for an additional $134 million to address hunger caused by drought.

In a statement to Reuters in Cairo, following a visit to the Darfur region, where he saw first-hand the effects of drought, the acting Executive Director of the Food Programme, Carl Skow, described the coincidence of the decline in aid and the decline in crops as a "certain disaster."

According to Skaw, food rations were cut in half in Tawila camp, a sprawling camp in Darfur that includes about 700,000 people displaced by the war, while relief workers reported that 9,000 people arrived in the camp between the beginning of September and mid-October.

Suad Ahmed, a teacher who was displaced from her home several times during the war, took refuge in Tawila in search of food after she left her village located east of the city of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state. As she recounts: “While I was on my way here, many people said to me: If you find food and drink there, please tell us.”

For his part, Adam Rijal, spokesman for the General Coordination for Displaced Persons and Refugees in Sudan, a non-governmental organization, explained that hunger, not war, has now become the main motivation that forces people to leave their homes. He also explained that "it is no longer limited to bullets."

Gedaref State was a mainstay of Sudan's food supply during the war because it remained untouched by the fighting, but it was not spared drought.

Imad Al-Kabsour, who runs large farms spanning an area of ​​14,700 hectares, says: “Even if rain falls in the coming period, I will only get about 25% of last year’s crop,” noting that extremely high temperatures cause crops to burn in the fields. He added: "We have never witnessed a season like this before."

According to data from the Reuters Climate Observatory, temperatures in Gedaref State ranged between 7 and 9 degrees Celsius above the historical average recorded on the twentieth of October.

However, Sudanese Minister of Agriculture Ismat Qureshi said in a press conference held in Khartoum on October 8 that this year’s crop will be lower, but “it will not be significantly less than last year’s crop.”

In response to a question about the drought, Abdul Rahman Ismail, Executive Director of the Rapid Support Forces Relief and Humanitarian Operations Agency, told Reuters: “We have made efforts to coordinate and call for an early response, and we believe we can do more if the necessary resources and capabilities are available.”

The Food Security Interim Classification Initiative announced that it had monitored pockets of famine in Sudan during the years 2024 and 2025, including in the city of El Fasher, which the Rapid Support Forces imposed a siege on that lasted a year and a half, before taking control of the city.

In addition, the drought dashes any hope of catching a breath in a country that has long suffered from successive humanitarian crises, including the 1984 famine that killed hundreds of thousands in the region.

“The situation today, in most respects, is much, much worse because of the conflict,” says Alex de Waal, an expert on famines, adding that in the 1980s the world mobilized resources to provide aid while international aid budgets are currently witnessing significant reductions.

Meanwhile, Siraj Al-Din Al-Taher, a farmer from Umm Rawaba, recalls what happened in 1984 when crops were destroyed, livestock died, and people were forced to flee. He says, "The American government came with aid and distributed it in our village." He added: "As for this year, 2026, we do not know what the end will be."