The Flydubai accident enters the Knesset race.. How does it affect Netanyahu?

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Weeks before the Israeli elections, the Flydubai plane accident added a new security issue to an election race that was already centered on a question about the government’s ability to protect Israelis. While Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to highlight the incident in his security speech, the opposition saw it as a new opportunity to hold the government accountable for its preparedness.

The accident that occurred on September 30 on a Flydubai flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv, after the co-pilot assaulted the captain of the plane and attempted to control it, ended with an emergency landing in the Saudi city of Tabuk without the passengers being injured, after the pilot and passengers were able to thwart the attempt.

While investigations are still examining the attacker's motives and any possible connections, Netanyahu found in the incident additional electoral material to strengthen his image as an official capable of confronting security risks, at a time when Israel is heading to the Knesset elections on October 27.

Netanyahu did not delay in commenting on the accident, as he praised the role of the passengers and pilots in preventing a disaster, while the incident quickly turned into the focus of Israeli political debate.

The government's allies considered that the incident reinforced the Prime Minister's previous warnings of the possibility of attacks before the elections, while the opposition saw that the way it was dealt with brought back to the fore the question of security failures and the role of civilians in preventing the disaster.

While the incident gained greater electoral importance because it came one day after Netanyahu warned of the possibility of Israel being subjected to attacks before the vote, a warning that prompted opposition leader Yair Lapid to request a security briefing.

However, Lapid later said that the briefing did not include any threat similar to the plane crash or related to an aircraft in particular, opening a political confrontation over whether Netanyahu actually possessed specific information before the incident, according to what the Times of Israel reported.

For his part, Dr. Muhammad Abboud, professor of Israeli studies at Ain Shams University in Egypt, said in statements to Al-Arabiya.net/Al-Hadath.net that Netanyahu dealt with the incident from the first moment as an electoral opportunity, considering that he tried to control the media narrative in Israel and present himself in the position of one who follows the crisis and protects the Israelis.

He also explained that the Prime Minister also tried to exploit the incident in formulating a security narrative that goes beyond the Israeli interior, by re-presenting the Israelis as victims of external threats, at a time when Tel Aviv is facing widespread international criticism and isolation due to the Gaza war.

The Israeli studies professor noted that this employment extended, in his estimation, to cyberspace, where the Likud Party used artificial intelligence videos presenting Netanyahu as a “savior hero,” while portraying his opponents as a threat to state security.

On the other hand, Dr. Jihad Al-Harazin, a Palestinian academic, writer, and political analyst, said in his statements to Al-Arabiya/Al-Hadath that the incident has repercussions on the Israeli arena, especially with the Knesset elections approaching, but it places it within a broader pattern of rhetoric that Netanyahu has been using for years to convince voters that Israel faces a constant danger and that he is the most capable of confronting it.

Al-Harazin also explained that the Israeli opposition views the matter from a different angle, as it considers that the policies of the Netanyahu government contributed to creating a state of hostility towards Israel and harming its international standing, which was reflected, from its point of view, in the level of risks to which the Israelis are exposed.

Not only did the opposition criticize the political exploitation of the incident, but some Israeli voices linked the incident to the events of October 7, 2023, when civilians and local forces found themselves facing the attack before the government security response reached its full scope.

In the Fly Dubai incident, government critics also focused on the fact that it was the passengers who intervened to stop the attacker, while Netanyahu tried to benefit from the heroism of these passengers to strengthen his security discourse. This debate emerged clearly in the Israeli media's coverage of the incident and its electoral repercussions. According to what was reported by the Times of Israel newspaper.

In addition, Abboud believed that Netanyahu can, in the best case scenario for his camp, maintain his position within Likud and fortify his list of internal competitors, but he does not yet have a guarantee of forming a government that will have a majority of 61 seats in the Knesset.

While the main problem in the electoral calculations remains the absence of a clear majority for either camp, which opens the door to complex alliances or the continuation of a political stalemate if one of the parties is unable to collect the votes necessary to form the government.

For his part, Al-Harazin considered that the incident might give the right a temporary boost because it brought security and external danger back to the forefront of the discussion, but it does not necessarily mean a reversal in the position of the Israeli voter, especially since the internal division around Netanyahu and his government still exists.

As for Abboud, he pointed out that Netanyahu seeks to turn the incident into part of a larger battle over the “security narrative,” so that the most prominent and important question for the Israeli voter becomes not only: Who rules? But also: Who can protect Tel Aviv in the face of the coming dangers?

But so far, there are no reliable indicators that allow us to say that the Flydubai incident has caused a significant shift in voting trends.

While polls that preceded the incident showed close competition; The latest Reuters poll averages indicated that the centrist Yeshar Party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, advanced by a limited margin over Likud, with the difficulty of forming a clear government coalition for either camp remaining.

The news agency also monitored, before the incident, Netanyahu once again relying on his image as the “protector of Israel” during his election campaign, even though the October 7 attack weakened this image and opened a wide debate about his political and security responsibility.

Between the government's narrative, which placed the incident in the context of a new security threat, and the opposition's narrative, which used it to question the state's readiness, the "Fly Dubai" incident seems likely to remain in the Israeli electoral debate, but the extent of its actual impact on the ballot boxes will not become clear until the emergence of subsequent polls measuring whether voters have actually changed their positions.