Vance to Iran: “We will not trade actions for words”

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A former US State Department official, Alan Eyre, believes that the United States and Iran may be looking closely at the Vietnam War for lessons to be learned from it. This official, who speaks fluent Persian and was the head of the Iran office at the US Consulate in Dubai, quoted what he said to his Vietnamese counterpart after the end of the war: “You will never defeat us on the battlefield.” The answer he received was: "It may be so but it has nothing to do with the matter." Eyre's point may be relevant or perhaps identical to the failure of the United States more than a month ago to respond to the escalating Iranian attacks on ships that were crossing or trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz under America's protection.

The British Trade Operations Agency (UKMTO) recently reported that fire was fired at a tanker sailing near the northern coast of Qatar, and it was hit by several shells, causing injuries. The number of this ship was 14, meaning 13 ships had been targeted before it. This is the highest number in a week since the start of the US-Iranian war.

It appears that the aforementioned attacks had the desired effect, as the number of ships transiting or seeking to cross the Strait of Hormuz decreased significantly over the course of more than two months. A while ago, 7 cargo ships passed through this strait in one day. This was the lowest number since July 2023, based on Kepler data and statistics. Note that reports indicated that the export of crude oil through the same strait had achieved an important jump a month earlier. 13.5 million barrels were transported to 16.5 million per day last September. Note that the export of diesel and similar materials remains difficult and restricted. America's failure to keep the strait open and ships continuing to cross it has worried people and prompted them to wonder whether its President Trump will remain focused on Iran economically and avoid returning to military action.

The United States struck Iranian targets in early September and sank five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island after accusing the Islamic Republic of launching ballistic missiles at an American warship. Since then, Trump and Iran have avoided the risk of returning to daily combat. Iran refrained from carrying out further attacks on American warships and American military bases in the Middle East. As for President Trump, he closed his eyes to Iranian attempts to disrupt navigation in the Gulf, especially near and through Hormuz. Iran supported Trump's aforementioned abstention by abstaining from declaring its ability to target ships that were not subject to scrutiny, which allowed them to sneak through after turning off their engines.

An important non-Arab Asian researcher says that stifling the flow of oil increases Iran's effectiveness in influencing prices, ensures the continuation of high insurance rates, and keeps the Gulf states dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for a long time. While its closure gives Islamic Iran an advantage and benefit in the short term, it brings the region closer to all-out war.

At the same time, it fits Iran's strategic calculations, which assume that opening the Strait to end the war can only happen next January if the Democrats are able to win a majority in the US legislative midterm elections, especially in the House of Representatives, if not in the Senate as well. The election date is next November 3. If the Democrats fail to win the aforementioned majority, Iran, based on its strategic calculations, is prepared to wait for the end of Trump’s term if he succeeds in maintaining his parliamentary majority. Yes, America destroyed an important and large portion of Iran’s military power. Yes, it paralyzes Iran's economy and spreads misery among very large circles of its people. But it still gets more oil from outside the region and more from the early stages of the war. But all of this has not brought America any closer to victory, at least not yet,” says Eyre, a former US State Department official.

As for Vance, US Vice President, a long-time critic of US military involvement abroad and a role in negotiations with Iran, it seems that the lessons of the Vietnam War were still on his mind when he finally launched a more flexible position on Iran, especially with regard to its nuclear program. He suggested that an agreement with Iran would require reducing its uranium enrichment capacity rather than abandoning its nuclear program. “If it does not want a nuclear weapon, why does it need to enrich uranium to 60 percent? If it wants to show a commitment to not making a nuclear weapon, do not enrich uranium to high levels. This is a fundamental and central issue. If you want to show a commitment to not making a nuclear weapon, you must do something convincing to the world regarding uranium enrichment.” He was thus asking for a clear Iranian concession. He added: "We will not trade actions for words."

As for Iranian officials, they insist that their steps must be accompanied by American steps, including lifting the naval blockade of Iranian ports, sanctions on oil exports, and releasing confiscated financial assets. Previous negotiations have achieved all of this, but the devil is always in the details. It does not appear that Trump will be applying the lessons of the Vietnam War any time soon. Documented information indicates that the US Central Command is preparing to resume operations to target Iranian energy, infrastructure, and nuclear infrastructure. But Trump said he would decide after the midterm elections whether he would return to major military action.