What Iran failed to do is repeated with the Houthis!

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In a debate held at Georgetown University in Washington a few days ago, it brought together two former national security advisors in the previous administration of US President Donald Trump, namely John Bolton and Robert O'Brien, both of whom left their positions after a sharp disagreement with the president, becoming among the most ardent opponents of Trump's thought and approach to this day.

Bolton and O'Brien agree that the military campaign against Iran will intensify after the midterm elections, whatever the outcome, and that the American policy of rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin and lifting sanctions on Russia aims to achieve a set of goals, the most important of which is neutralizing Russia in the American-Iranian conflict, in exchange for stopping military support for Ukraine, to begin the process of stopping the war and ending the Russian bleeding that has been continuing for more than four years.

The two former officials also agreed that resolving the battle with Iran militarily is no longer an option, but has become an obligation, as the survival of the Iranian regime is definitely a defeat for America, and this is what no one expects to happen. But Trump's personality, which borders on narcissism according to O'Brien's description, has an impact on his future decisions, which will make him more ferocious if the Republican Party loses the midterm elections. The American President, during the remainder of his term, will work for his political legacy, and he will not accept being the American president who fails to achieve the promises and goals that he assured that he would achieve.

On the other hand, the Iranian regime does not realize, in the end, that its people are exhausted, its economy is bankrupt, its regional influence is shrinking, and what remains of it is being taken away by eliminating the arms whose leaders have been assassinated, whose positions have been destroyed, and whose weaknesses and lies have been exposed. The Iranian regime’s media says that the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab cards are what the Trump administration has not taken into account, and that this will lead to an American dispute with the allies, especially the Europeans who are suffering economically, socially, and politically. But the regime did not read well the experience of Gamal Abdel Nasser, who used the cards to close the Strait of Tiran and the Suez Canal and blockaded the port of Aqaba. This led to the disaster of the Six-Day War in June 1967, the consequences of which the Arabs are still suffering. Just as the late Arab leader believed that the Soviet Union, in accordance with the Mutual Defense Treaty, would come to his aid and would not allow a major war to be waged against the United Arab Republic, the pillars of the Iranian regime believe that Russia and China will prevent its downfall and will stand behind it as an impenetrable barrier against American “imperialism.” However, the pillars of the Iranian regime, specifically the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, do not realize that the interests of the major powers, which are certainly not among them, go beyond treaties, values ​​and principles. The defense treaty with the Soviet Union, which was seeking to end the Cold War, did not save Nasser, and he entered into complex secret negotiations with the United States to reach an agreement to limit strategic arms. The Russians will also not intervene to help Iran, as they seek to help Trump end the Ukraine war.

The Iranian regime, which is effectively run by the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, is still seeking to export the revolution and extend influence. The Deputy Foreign Minister calls for arming the Lebanese people for resistance, and Hezbollah, a corps affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, is trying to restore its influence using motorcycles that spread chaos and fear in the neighborhoods of Beirut, as if the world around the party has not changed. The Syrian supply line has been closed forever, and Israel has come to control most of southern Lebanon, with no deterrent or anyone to deter it. Financial capabilities have shrunk, and many of the budgets of affiliated departments and institutions have been reduced, and the incubator environment has been reduced, in secret as well as increasingly in public. It has no desire or ability to continue suffering.

As in Lebanon, also in Yemen, the Revolutionary Guard is launching its missiles at civilian targets in Saudi Arabia through the Houthi group, in order to spread chaos and confusion in the Kingdom, and to send a message to the American administration saying that the security of the Gulf and the region, from the sea to the river, is in its hands, and there is no objection if the price is more destruction and death in Yemen and Lebanon. However, Saudi Arabia is well aware of what the Revolutionary Guard is seeking, and is acting wisely and deliberately, and is well aware that the Iranian regime is collapsing and is behaving absurdly, just as Saddam Hussein did during his withdrawal from Kuwait, when he set fire to Kuwaiti oil installations, and American companies specialized in extinguishing fires profited from his action, which received approximately 750 million dollars for their work.

According to a security official, the United States can curb the Houthis by strengthening Saudi Arabia’s defense capabilities and disrupting the group’s sources of armament, while maintaining its military focus on confronting Iran and avoiding being drawn into a long war of attrition in Yemen.

This approach begins with developing early warning, expanding the exchange of intelligence information with Riyadh, and linking monitoring and interception systems within an integrated defense network. It also requires securing a stable supply of interceptor missiles, allowing for confronting simultaneous attacks targeting residents, airports, and oil installations, and maintaining Saudi readiness.

In parallel, Washington and its partners can tighten control over smuggling routes, disrupt financing and supply networks, and prevent missile and drone components from reaching the Houthis. Weakening their ability to compensate for their losses and manufacture their weapons reduces the frequency of attacks and limits the United States’ need for continuous raids that deplete ammunition, aircraft, and reconnaissance means.

The same security official added that direct military intervention should be limited, when necessary, to extremely important targets whose attack is based on accurate information and clear military benefit, while assessing the risks of escalation and protecting civilians.

The official warns that show strikes may undermine the truce between Washington and the Houthis, and open a series of confrontations that withdraw American resources from the Iranian front. Therefore, supporting Saudi Arabia defensively, stifling Houthi supplies, and carefully choosing limited operations allows the Kingdom to be protected and one of Tehran’s tools to be weakened, without dispersing American power or giving Iran an opportunity to prolong the war and raise its cost to the United States and its partners in the region.

Quoted from Asharq Al-Awsat