Analysis: Netanyahu loses his majority...but Eisenkot’s path to victory is “fraught with complications”

Analysis by Tal Shalev from the Ofoq News Network - In light of exit poll indicators showing that neither Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival Gadi Eisenkot have a clear path towards achieving a parliamentary majority, the calculations for forming a government coalition after the elections have become open to all possibilities. Options such as political stagnation, forming a minority government, a national unity government, or even going to new elections are all possible scenarios.

This is bad news for Netanyahu. His bloc - made up of ultra-Orthodox and right-wing allies - lost its majority, and its number of seats decreased from 68 to only 50 seats. Although opinion polls indicate that his Likud party will retain 24 seats - making it the largest party - this number remains very far from the 61-seat barrier needed to achieve a majority in the 120-seat parliament.

It is essential for Netanyahu to secure a government coalition so that he can remain in power. As for the opposition bloc, it theoretically has 70 seats, but reality indicates that it is a fragmented and divided bloc, which makes finding a path forward extremely difficult.

The Jewish Zionist parties hold 52 seats, while the Arab parties are expected to obtain 18 seats, a record number that represents the highest percentage of Arab representation ever. It is expected that the "Yashar" party, led by Eisenkot, will be the largest party within the opposition bloc, winning 22 seats. However, the leaders of other parties in the same bloc have ruled out forming a government that depends on the support of the Arab parties, which greatly complicates any attempt to oust Netanyahu.

The record turnout of Arab voters appears to be one of the most prominent features of these elections. Palestinian citizens of Israel - who constitute about 20% of the total population - have historically recorded voting rates lower than the national average. In the 2022 elections, their participation rate reached 53%, while this time estimates indicate that it has risen to exceed 78%. This move is seen as a protest vote against Netanyahu's government and his far-right allies, specifically National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

At the same time, high voter turnout raises the challenge for small parties. These parties will need a larger number of votes to exceed the electoral threshold set at 3.25%. Exit polls are only preliminary estimates, and the landscape may change as actual vote counting begins overnight.