America and Israel have made progress in preparations.. Is the “three-day war” sufficient to change Iran’s position?

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US President Donald Trump, when he talks about “things that will happen soon” with regard to Iran, does not clarify what these things are. But the observer does not need much effort to discover the nature of what is meant by this statement. There is a firm belief that America and Israel are preparing to launch what is described as a three-day “intensive and short operation” against Iranian sites after the midterm elections in the United States on November 3.

The scope for speculation remains wide open regarding the purpose of the new military operations. Trump believes that Iran, after receiving a large-scale military strike, will be more willing to make concessions in negotiations, especially regarding the Iranian nuclear program. He has in mind Mount Ax near Natanz, due to suspected Iranian nuclear activities at the site. He is not inclined to attack Iranian oil fields, so that oil prices do not skyrocket. This is a point of contention with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is pushing to bomb oil fields, refineries, electricity, bridges, and missile and drone production facilities simultaneously, paving the way for the overthrow of the regime.

It is no secret that Netanyahu wants to exploit a new war to pressure opposition parties to enter a government coalition with him, at a time when opinion polls show that the right-wing coalition he leads will not be able to win 61 seats to form the new government.

Confirming that a return to the military option is the most likely, reports continue about the joint US-Israeli air maneuver over Iraq all the way to the Iranian borders, and about the growing US naval build-up by the end of this month, as the number of US ships will increase from 20 ships to 24, including three aircraft carriers and a naval force that includes about 20,000 sailors and Marines, as well as special forces soldiers. Washington has withdrawn some of its diplomats from Saudi Arabia, amid reports of arrangements to evacuate the families of employees from other Gulf missions, in anticipation of escalation of confrontations.

The New York Times quoted American officials as saying that they believe that the intensified strikes could push the Iranian economy to the brink of collapse, noting that previous predictions of this collapse did not come true. Indeed, the regime became more stringent after each war.

The mediators who visited Iran in recent days offered to accept what Trump is offering to change the order of the agenda of controversial issues and start with the nuclear file, with the aim of reducing escalation and avoiding a new war. However, the Iranian response was negative, especially in terms of refusing to remove 60 percent enriched nuclear materials from Iran to a third country, or the return of inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency before Washington agreed to the seven Iranian demands. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who received Pakistani Army Commander Marshal Asim Munir on Tuesday, stressed that the United States cannot expect dialogue in light of the blockade it imposes on Iran and the threats it issues. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reiterated that his country is fully prepared to defend itself.

Iranian officials warn that their responses to any military action will be broad and include the destruction of infrastructure in the Gulf, including cutting Internet cables under the Strait of Hormuz. What is noteworthy is that the regime in Iran is coupling its warnings with a field escalation. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced today that four tankers that were participating in illegal oil transport operations in the northern Gulf were struck at the same time, causing them to catch fire, after the Guard forces monitored them yesterday, Wednesday. He added that three other ships collided with mines west of the Strait of Hormuz.

If Trump is planning a few days of fighting to convince Iran to return to negotiations on flexible terms, these estimates will not necessarily match when war breaks out. The US President announced on February 28 that the war would last only two weeks, but it was close to entering its ninth month.