Iran confuses the Knesset’s calculations... warnings of an attack with political timing

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Reservations are increasing within the Israeli security establishment about launching a new attack on Iran before the elections scheduled for October 27, amid fears that any military move at this time could be interpreted as political interference in the electoral process, at a time when Israel is raising its level of preparedness for the possibility of carrying out a military operation against Tehran.

Two informed sources revealed that security officials expressed their reservations to the political level about attacking Iran at the present time, warning that the timing of the operation may raise accusations of using military escalation to influence the results of the elections, according to what was reported by the Israeli Broadcasting Authority.

Press reports also confirmed these details, indicating that Israeli military preparations are continuing, but the dates for readiness to carry out strikes against specific targets are still relatively far away, according to what was reported by the Jerusalem Post newspaper.

The warnings come in conjunction with reports that the Israeli security establishment has raised its level of preparedness in recent weeks to carry out a possible operation inside Iran, and to conduct air exercises across Iraqi airspace that simulate a possible path for a long-range attack.

American and Israeli officials said that dozens of Israeli fighters and refueling planes participated, on Monday, in an air sortie that covered a distance of more than 800 miles, passing through Syrian and Iraqi airspace, before the planes turned around near the Iranian border and returned to Israel without entering Iranian airspace, according to Axios.

While Israel informed the United States in advance of the move, describing it as a military training aimed at demonstrating the ability to reach distant targets and deter Iran. However, American officials expressed concerns that the move might lead to a miscalculation on the Iranian side, and the report also conveyed the impression from some sources that Israel may have been hoping to push Tehran to respond, which might provide justification for launching an attack, which Israel has not officially confirmed.

These developments indicate that raising military readiness does not necessarily mean taking a final decision to implement the operation, especially in light of the reservations regarding its timing and its potential repercussions on the Israeli interior.

Politically, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to issue warnings about Iran, and presents changing the Iranian regime as a strategic goal, but he acknowledged that achieving this goal before the Israeli elections is unrealistic. In an interview with the Israeli broadcaster Kan on October 14, Netanyahu said in response to a question about the possibility of overthrowing the Iranian regime before the Israelis go to the polls on October 27: “No, I do not think that is realistic.” At the same time, he stressed the need for regime change, considering that his continued leadership represents a threat to Israel.

Netanyahu had said in an interview with Israeli Army Radio on the same day that he would not prefer to launch a pre-emptive strike on Iran before the elections, adding that this timing was “inappropriate,” while he warned Tehran and its allies against attacking Israel, vowing a strong response if his country was attacked.

The reservations were not limited to the risks of interfering in the elections, but rather extended to questions about the feasibility of launching a new military operation before the expected vote and its ability to achieve strategic goals beyond directing limited strikes.

For his part, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid said, in statements to the Kan Broadcasting Corporation, that he does not see, based on the information available to him, a justification for attacking Iran before the elections, while stressing that his position does not mean refusing to attack it in principle, but rather objecting to the timing in the absence of an urgent necessity, according to the "Jerusalem Post."

The former commander of the Israeli Air Force, retired Major General Amikam Norkin, also questioned the ability of a limited military operation to overthrow the Iranian regime, stressing the importance of maintaining internal stability during the election period.

These positions reflect a discrepancy within Israel regarding the timing and objectives of the military move, between continued preparation for the possibility of a resumption of confrontation with Iran, and warning that a new operation before the elections may carry security and political repercussions that are difficult to contain.

These warnings gain additional importance as the Israeli legislative elections scheduled for October 27 approach, in which the ruling coalition and opposition parties will compete to form the next government. Israelis vote to choose members of the Knesset, the 120-seat parliament, and not to choose the prime minister directly. The formation of the government depends on the ability of one of the candidates to garner the support of a parliamentary majority of at least 61 seats.

The elections come amid internal controversy over the management of wars and security challenges, which makes any new military escalation with Iran present in the political calculations, amid questions about its repercussions on Netanyahu’s chances of retaining power.