Escalation between Ethiopia and Eritrea... and mutual accusations of aggression

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Tensions escalated between Ethiopia and Eritrea on Friday, after Addis Ababa accused its northern neighbor of waging “flagrant aggression” against its territory, confirming that Eritrean forces had penetrated 60 kilometers deep into the Tigray region, while Asmara responded by accusing the Ethiopian government of seeking to wage a war to seize a sea port on the Red Sea.

In a letter sent to the United Nations, Ethiopia accused Eritrea of ​​violating its sovereignty and invading its territory, in a development that reflects the escalation of disputes between the two countries.

The details of the military movements reported by Addis Ababa, or their timing, were not immediately clear, and it was not possible to independently verify the extent of the announced incursion.

On the other hand, Eritrea considered that the Ethiopian threats did not begin with the recent developments, but rather go back to October 2023, when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed raised the issue of his country obtaining a sea port.

The Eritrean Ministry of Information accused the Ethiopian government of following a hostile policy towards Asmara for more than 3 years, considering that Abiy Ahmed’s statements before Parliament on October 13, 2023 represented the beginning of this trend.

According to the Eritrean account, the then Ethiopian Prime Minister announced that his country was seeking “sovereign access to the sea, through negotiations if possible, and by force if necessary.”

Asmara said that it responded at that time by calling for restraint, stressing that it would not be drawn into what it described as provocations.

The Eritrean Ministry of Information added that Abiy Ahmed launched repeated campaigns to mobilize internal support for his agenda related to the Red Sea.

It also accused Ethiopia's ruling Prosperity Party of citing Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights as a precedent on which to claim the Eritrean city of Assab.

According to the Eritrean statement, Ethiopian officials went too far in questioning Eritrea's independence, through statements claiming that there were no legal documents in the archives of Ethiopian government institutions related to its independence.

The Eritrean Ministry of Information also spoke about statements attributed to the Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Army, in which he said that military operations would not stop in the Tigray region.

According to Asmara, these statements included that the city of Mekelle is only a way station, and that the final destination is the port of Assab, while seeking to raise the Ethiopian flag on the Red Sea.

Eritrea also accused the Ethiopian government of repeating calls directed to the army, which it considers its primary mission to include ensuring the security of the Red Sea, from the Somali border all the way to the Eritrean port of Massawa.

Asmara stressed that what it described as Ethiopian threats constitute a violation of the principles of international law and the United Nations Charter, which prohibit the threat or use of force against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states.

The available information did not provide a detailed Ethiopian response to the accusations contained in the Eritrean statement.

The crisis acquires special sensitivity due to the complex history of relations between the two countries. Eritrea gained its independence from Ethiopia in 1993, making Ethiopia a landlocked country, dependent on the ports of neighboring countries for its foreign trade.

Years later, the two countries fought a border war between 1998 and 2000, before signing a peace agreement in 2018, after Abiy Ahmed came to power. But relations returned to tension, especially after the war that the Tigray region witnessed between 2020 and 2022, in which Eritrean forces participated alongside Ethiopian forces against Tigray forces.

With renewed disputes, the issue of access to the Red Sea returned to occupy a central position in the tension between Addis Ababa and Asmara.

Ethiopia views access to ports as a strategic and economic issue, while Eritrea maintains full sovereignty over its ports and territory.

Ethiopian accusations regarding incursion into Tigray increase the seriousness of the crisis, because they move the dispute from the level of political statements to direct accusations of military movements across the border.

In light of the exchange of accusations of aggression, attention is turning to the United Nations and regional diplomatic efforts, amid fears that continued escalation will lead to renewed confrontation between the two countries.

The nature of the military movements inside Tigray, and the extent of the incursion announced by Ethiopia, remain issues that need independent confirmation, while each party adheres to its narrative regarding the causes of the crisis and the responsibility for the escalation.