Yemen is facing a new turning point... and the equation of deterrence against the Houthis is changing

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The Yemeni file is heading towards a turning point, with escalating military confrontations and increasing pressure on the Houthi group, in a shift that may move the conflict from managing the lines of contact to targeting the sources of power that enabled the group to continue fighting and impose its political conditions over the past years.

Operation “Yemen Dawn,” launched by the legitimate Yemeni government on October 5, comes in the context of a military and political escalation aimed at restoring state institutions and reducing the capabilities of the Houthis, amid Saudi support for the legitimacy.

Observers believe that the recent developments go beyond a new round of confrontations, towards an attempt to reshape the balance of power and impose a different equation, especially with the continued Houthi attacks that threaten the security of the world and Saudi Arabia in particular by targeting civilian installations and sea lanes.

Major General Abdul Latif Al-Humaidan, a writer and political and security analyst in Middle East affairs, told Al Arabiya.net that targeting civilian facilities, such as King Khalid International Airport or Aden Airport, represents an escalation that goes beyond the borders of the conflict, and reveals the use of missile capabilities and drones for political and military pressure.

He added that the statement of the Coalition to Support Legitimacy, in which it warned the Houthis against continuing attacks on the Kingdom, carries clear messages regarding the need to stop attacks and prevent armed groups from obtaining advanced technologies and weapons.

Al-Humaidan believes that the challenge is not limited only to intercepting missiles and drones, but also extends to limiting the Houthis’ ability to launch them again by targeting launch pads, warehouses, and military infrastructure associated with the attacks.

Al-Humaidan points out that tactical success in destroying military targets will be reflected in a decline in attacks and a change in the group’s calculations.

This confrontation is gaining regional and international dimensions with the escalation of risks to navigation and trade in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab. Any threat to the safety of civil aviation or sea lanes places the international community responsible for dealing with the sources of the threat and the military supply networks that fuel the conflict.

In the same context, the Coalition to Support Legitimacy warned the Houthis against using traditional maritime means to smuggle weapons, missiles and military equipment, in reference to the importance of tightening control over supply routes.

For his part, Omar bin Abdul Rahman Al-Shadi, a Saudi journalist, believes that the military developments may represent a transition from the stage of containing threats and managing lines of contact to an attempt to change the balance of power and impose a new reality.

He told Al Arabiya.net that managing the conflict means keeping it within containable limits, while changing the balance of power aims to rearrange the parties' accounts, which may open the way to a more stable political settlement. But this transformation faces challenges on the ground, in light of the Houthis' reliance on supply networks and mobile capabilities, in addition to employing long-range attacks to achieve political and media influence, even as their military capabilities are exposed to depletion. Fears increase as civilian areas continue to be targeted. The Yemeni armed forces affiliated with the legitimate government announced that the city of Marib, densely populated and displaced, was attacked by ballistic missiles, in a development that reflects the expanding risks to civilians.

In the context of the complexities of the confrontation, accusations related to cooperation between the Houthis and Al-Qaeda in Yemen emerge. The governor of Shabwa, Awad Muhammad bin Al-Wazir, had revealed to Al-Arabiya that cells affiliated with the organization had been seized working in cooperation with the Houthis inside the governorate, indicating that investigations into them were continuing.

This case, if investigations confirm its details, raises questions about the nature of the networks that the group can use to strengthen its position in light of military and security pressures.

According to Al-Shadi, Saudi calculations go beyond responding to attacks to protecting an integrated system of national interests, including the security of cities, vital installations, civil aviation, economic stability, and sea lanes. The stability of Yemen represents an essential part of the security of the Kingdom and the region.

In this context, the distinction between military decisiveness and strategic decisiveness emerges. Operations may succeed in destroying warehouses or disabling launch pads, but the most important result remains the extent to which they are able to change hostile behavior and prevent the rebuilding of military capabilities.